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It’s time to win some more money. This weekend has been the toughest for me to handicap but what has emerged feels as solid as we can get. Five picks now for you all thanks to a full week of breaking down film, news, numbers and press conferences.
Florida -11.5 @ LSU (-108)
There’s a tough confluence of events happening here for LSU. Firstly, they aren’t a great team. Secondly, they are now down (as of this week) four of their top defensive players at least for this week. Thirdly, Florida has revenge on the mind. If you’ve forgotten, last season LSU cost Florida a back-door chance at the college football playoff in a bizarre fog-ridden game by actually competing and winning. Finally, Florida has to now keep up with the pack. This early game will happen before Kentucky/Georgia and right now, the Gators are firmly in 3rd place on the division. Florida still has a path for a lot of good to happen this season, but it is to and will start by sacrificing LSU at the CFB altar.
Purdue @ Iowa, UNDER 43.5 (-110)
This number has stayed where it is for the entire week and that’s good news for us. Earlier this week I wrote about a few game totals we wanted to keep our eyes on as the week continued and this game made the list for a bevy of reasons. The total is getting pretty close to 50/50 money betting on both sides, again good news. I like both of thee offenses to struggle for the majority of he game, especially the one coming from West Lafayette. Let’s take the under.
Western Kentucky @ Old Dominion, OVER 65.5 (-110)
I’m taking this over and it’s almost exclusively based on Western Kentucky. Did you know that just a couple seasons ago Western Kentucky was legitimately one of the top defense in the country? Did you also know that is a long time ago? Wow, have things have changed. The Hilltoppers are pouring on the offense, mainly through the passing attack. No one passes for more yardage and only four other teams score more than Western Kentucky. On the backside, Western is also on of the worst defenses in the country and as a result, all five WKU games have gone OVER. Old Dominion is 3-3 on the total this season but they are going to get some serious help in this one. Points will be aplenty.
Kentucky +22.5 @ Georgia (-115)
Last season, in Lexington, Georgia walked in and tried to finish the game in 30 minutes by showing no real interest in passing. They escaped 14-7 and that was with a Wildcats team sans ANY THREAT AT QUARTERBACK. Now, Will Levis is there and he has proven to be capable. He’s blessed with an offensive coordinator that has called a masterful 2021 season, a stud receiver transfer, a strong offensive line and perhaps the best running back in the SEC. Plus this isn’t the Kentucky you remember being “lucky” to beat Florida. Georgia has the 6th largest point-differential in SEC history and have only allowed two offensive touchdowns. They are wildly sound all-around. Both of these teams are playing the best team they have faced all season and it will be a grind. If Kentucky can avoid massive early mistakes (like a turnover inside their own territory) I think they will be in this the entire afternoon. I love this game. I even dabbled a little on Kentucky straight up (+1100).
Ole Miss @ Tennessee, UNDER 83.5 (-112)
We encountered this philosophy with Alabama/Ole Miss a couple of weeks ago when that total reached 79.5. This is a massive amount of points that need to be scored and to get to this number, the volume of quick scores that have to happen is bananas. I’m very much aware that Ole Miss had 103 points scored last week against Arkansas but this is a simple play for me… it’s super hard get me to bet for all of those perfect events to happen. You show me the largest total in college football this season, I’ll show you an under bet I am making and I’ll make that bet again and again and again and again.