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The weekend is fast approaching and it’s time to lock-in some plays. This week is loaded with really good games, really jarring lines and even a really painful matchup that of course we are going to bet on. Let’s hop to it.
This is an eyeball test and analytics windfall for us. Let’s start with what we have seen; Clemson has struggled for the entirety of the season offensively. They are 121st in the NCAA in total offense. Winless UMass and Ohio both average more yards per game! KANSAS FOOTBALL IS A BETTER OFFENSE! It’s bad. Boston College is the 15th highest scoring team in the country. The Eagles also are 3-1 ATS only only failed to cover a ginormous spread against UMass. When it comes to points allowed per game, these two are also pretty stingy, separated by just four points allowed per game (CLEM 12.0, BC 16.3). This is a reputation only spread. BC covers this spread. I’ll also sprinkle a little on BC to win outright at +540.
FOOTBALL SICKO MODE ACTIVATED! Friends of mine remind me that these two defenses give up a lot of yards and points. My friends also forget those other teams actually spend money on their football programs and are competent! Vanderbilt & UConn are miserable on offense. UConn averages 14.2 points per game while Vanderbilt scores 12.0. UConn is 124th in passing and 118th in rushing. Vanderbilt brings in the 117th passing offense and the 102nd rushing offense. Where are all these points going to come from?
Friends, if you haven’t met Chris Reynolds yet, quarterback for the Charlotte 49ers, please introduce yourselves early Saturday afternoon. This young man has the same number of touchdown passes as guys like Matt Corral and Jack Coan. He’s super efficient, while only averaging 231 yards per game, his yards-per-completion average is 13.8. He’s deadly inside the redzone too with seven of his nine touchdown passes coming inside those confines. Illinois is 123rd in yards allowed per game thru the air and 129th in 1st downs allowed, 63rd in rush defense (Charlotte averages 199.5 yards per game on the ground). Illinois’ offense is quietly slumbering along at just 106th in total offense. Also in our favor, ball control: Charlotte is 6th in nation in time of possession.
Western Michigan has covered three consecutive spreads and that is no small feat. The last two games the Broncos impressed by smothering San Jose State (a preseason darling in the Mountain West) and outright beating the #2 scoring team in all of college football, the Pittsburgh Panthers. To me, that says they have proven that can win in multiple different ways and styles. Buffalo is 88th in the country in rushing defense so I suspect we will see a heavy dose of Sean Tyler and La’Darius Jefferson from the Broncs, both of whom are over 270 rushing yards this year and already have double-digit carries in every game thus far.
Liberty let us down last week at Syracuse (-6.5) but not only failing to cover, but losing outright. They came back from 14 and had a chance to get ahead of the spread with a 4th & Goal from the two, but Malik Willis was stonewalled well before the goalline. This is a new week, with an extra day to prepare and a TOUGH UAB defense to get past. The Blazers are a small favorite for good reason, they are good. Remember the FCS team that beat Florida State? UAB beat them 31-0. Recall the Tulane team that got robbed of a chance to beat Oklahoma in Norman? UAB just beat them and held them to 21 points. The Blazers are 3-1 ATS and return home for the first time ever in their brand new stadium and Liberty is on the road for the second straight week. I like the Blazers.