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What this weeks lacks in star-power games, it more than makes up for with nice cozy spots to make the money. It’s often times the games that no one is watching that reveal the best bets. That being said, let’s dive into this week’s feast.
FRIDAY, Memphis @ UCF OVER 64 (-108)
I can’t pick which way this game will go as far as a winner is concerned, but I think we are getting some fireworks Friday night. Memphis dismantled Navy a week ago (join the club) but UCF is still burnt from their encounter with Cincinnati last week. Gus Malzahn had to leave immediately after the game for family emergency (which turned out okay) and something I am certain weighed on his mind. I watched Gus for a lot of years at Auburn and I’ve seen him coach some good football after bad showings. He’s 5-1 on the over this season. and 2-1 after a loss. These are still top-30 offenses going against bottom-30 defenses so it all adds to our favor.
Cincinnati @ Navy OVER 48.5 (110)
We are just a couple weeks away from the first college football playoff rankings and Cincinnati doesn’t have a lot of big meaty games on its schedule since Notre Dame so it’s DOMINATION TIME! In the two games since the Irish win, they’ve powered up on Temple and UCF and have done it while pressing firmly on the gas and often. I don’t think that changes this week because Navy is a difficult opponent to get a lot of credit for beating, so it’s critical they slam the Midshipmen hard and score as much as possible.
UMass +35.5 (-108) @ Florida State
I literally went thru every Power 5 team in college football looking for teams that I would trust less with a FIVE TOUCHDOWN spread and I wasn’t coming up with much. Florida State is 81st in scoring and if I am going to trust my money with a big spread like that, I want to run with an offense that’s at least in the top 50%, is that too much to ask? This also feels like a bad spot for the Seminoles. They are coming off a big win over North Carolina and while that was two weeks ago, I have a tough time thinking they focused on UMass in a noon kickoff game instead of Clemson next week.
FIU vs. Western Kentucky UNDER 77 (-110)
Two miserable defenses and one pass-happy WKU squad and I am still playing the under? Yeah. Despite both teams being 5-1 on the OVER, this is the largest total for either by a full touchdown. In order to get 80 points, essentially we are talking touchdowns on 90% of the possessions. Is it doable with these two? Yeah, sure but I’m working with the odds here and the smart money is to not trust the largest total on the board.
North Carolina State @ Miami OVER 53 (-114)
This total is perfect. I’m still taking the over but I think this number is great for us to grab some value here. These two have combined to go over in 5 of their last 7 games and only one of those was a squeaker. Miami seems to have some competent rhythm on offense and NC State has been a smooth, steady rock on that side too. There’s nothing flashy about this game but it’ll be a workman’s effort to get us past the 53.