Broncos @ Cowboys (-9.5)
“Safe to say.” That’s what Dak Prescott said when asked if he would start Sunday against the Broncos and I love that answer. This Cowboys team is flying high and is welcoming in an overmatched Broncos team that is hiding behind some numbers to tell you how good they are. For instance, they are allowing 17.3 points per game, which is second in the league. Then you realize upon further review that they have amassed those numbers against primarily bottom-10 scoring offenses like the Jags, Steelers, Giants, Jets and Washington. Against the two best offenses they’ve played (Baltimore and Vegas) they’ve been punked by double-digits. If we add that to the trade of Von Miller from this team, the Broncos don’t stand a chance.
Browns @ Bengals, OVER 47
These Ohio teams are coming off really disappointing losses a week ago and are primed for an up spot. The Bengals turned into a disaster in the second half against the Jets and we all are aware of those Jets. But this Bengals team isn’t the one we just saw. It’s the one that just came off a real emotional high when they beat the Ravens soundly in that second half. The Browns haven’t been drama-free on their end, but I expect a full bounce back mentally for both these teams AND physically for the Browns. These two offenses can rack up points and Cincy is hitting a stride at a good time for us and I expect that sometimes leaky Bengals defense to allow Baker and Chubb to do damage a few times. I’m on the over.
Patriots @ Panthers (+3.5)
The Patriots are normal. It’s hard to believe but we are in Year 2 of the post-Brady era and everything we say about nay other team has totally applied to them. They are susceptible to home losses, big mistakes and emotional letdowns. We look to be in store for another one of those this weekend. This is the first time the Patriots have had back-to-back road games and it’s for a noon-kickoff against reeling Carolina. The Panthers may be reeling from a potential loss of Sam Darnold but may be back with RB Christian McCaffery which will be a big boost to whomever is tossing the ball. The Panthers are one of only two teams that allow fewer than 300 yards per game. The Patriots average 25.8 points per but that number is buoyed by a 54-spot they tossed on the Jets a couple weeks ago and the fact is they have scored 25 or fewer in half of their games. This is a small spot I like the Panthers in and I think it works out well for the home team.