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Outkick Bets: 3 CFB Picks

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We got a jammed slate of college games with a ton on the line. Next week might be rivalry week, this one has major stakes.

#3 OREGON @ #23 UTAH (-2.5)

Let’s start out West where the Ducks take on a quietly impressive Utah Utes bunch that is rounded into for the past two months. It’s hard to believe how close these two teams are in terms of the statistics. On offense that are just separated by three yards on total yards averaged, nine yards averaged through the air, twelve yards on the ground and a half-of-a-point in scoring. On defense it’s a similar tale, separation in total defense is just 20 yards and just a single point in scoring defense. This is likely a game that’ll happen again in a couple of weeks since Utah is one win or an Arizona State loss from clinching their division and Utah holds the tiebreaker. Utah has been money, going over in six straight games and hold an 8-2 mark to the over in 2021. Utah is also unbeaten at home. I’m still riding with Oregon in this one tho due to experience. Experience in tight games this season, experience under Mario Cristobal in huge games that mean so much nationally and hopefully for us, learned lessons. Oregon moneyline +138.

LOUISIANA @ LIBERTY, TOTAL 53.5

This isn’t the game that’ll get a ton of national media hype, but that’s fine with us because we have a heck of a matchup between two budding-programs. Liberty is a dangerous offensive team, scoring 35 points a game, and are led by a QB named Malik Willis that is the epitome of what Hugh Freeze likes out of that position: versatility. Liberty is also great pass defense, top 10 in the country in fact. That’s even better for us because Louisiana doesn’t do much through the air. Both these teams are in the top 20 in scoring defense and that’s where we come in. UNDERS are a combined 14-5-1 for these two titans. Let’s take the under 53.5 pals.

#7 Michigan State @ #4 Ohio State (-18.5)

I went back-and-forth on where I was going to play this game. It’s so many points to trust Ohio State with. I’ve always believed to believe in a cover of a spread this large I have to know that one team is elite at one thing. In this case Ohio State is. The Buckeyes offense is #1 in the country. They are going against a Spartans defense that is 111th in total yards allowed and dead last in passing yards allowed. Somehow tho, they only allow 22.5 points per game. How? Well, in their last five games, including Michigan, the average scoring offense that State has faced is 82nd. Now it makes more sense. I’m not sleeping on the Spartans. Kenneth Walker III has been a spectacular this season. He’s just 3 TDs short of 20 on the season and is averaging 7.4 yards per carry against ranked teams. Payton Thorne, Michigan State’s QB, has eerily similar splits on the road as at home. He’s also thrown 6 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions in November while completing 70% of his passes. Ohio State has struggled, even recently, covering the spread in-conference, failing to against Nebraska and Penn State before dropping Purdue. Call me a wild man, but I think Michigan State has enough firepower to go back and forth for a long time against Ohio State and cover the 18.5 and I like the over 68.5 too. Why not wake up and get wild for the noon kick?

Written by Arky Shea

Arky is a decade plus veteran of sports talk radio and a podcaster since before it was cool (2006). He has also won many, many awards for being good at it. As you read this, he is probably working an angle to win $50 on a game and wondering when the Alabama dynasty actually will end.

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