Orioles vs. Red Sox, 7:10 ET
The Orioles are four games back of the last spot in the Wild Card race. They have just a 0.4% chance of making the playoffs, but here I am hoping they can pull it off. I have nothing in the race – I don’t have a bet on them, and aside from The Wire, the aquarium, and a couple of spots in the Italian village, I think Baltimore is a terrible place, but I still want them to win. It is unlikely, but this whole season has been unlikely for them.
Jordan Lyles takes the ball for the Orioles. Lyles just turned in his best outing of the season. He pitched a complete game and allowed just one earned run against the Tigers. He also threw less than 100 pitches which is significant because we shouldn’t need to worry about his stamina or availability for this game. He has faced Boston four times this year, the most recent outing was by far the worst. In that outing, he lasted just 3.2 innings and allowed eight earned runs. The other previous meetings were okay. At Fenway, Lyles pitched 4.1 innings, allowed nine hits, and three earned runs. I think he probably is closer to that start tonight than he is to the eight earned runs one. I like Lyles, but don’t expect him to be scoreless in his start.
Connor Seabold is throwing for the Red Sox. There hasn’t been much to be excited by in his four outings this season. In three of the four, he has allowed at least four earned runs. His one good appearance was against the Cubs in July and he allowed one earned run over four innings. In his most recent start against the Reds, he allowed four earned runs over five innings to the Reds. He has only pitched once at Fenway and the Yankees absolutely rocked him for seven runs in 2.2 innings. Bottom line here is that Seabold is not someone you want to put money on. There is no hitter data for the Orioles against Seabold, but there was very little for other batters and they had no trouble.
I can only support the Orioles in this one. I think they win the game and will take it at +110. The Red Sox are also coming off of a night game yesterday, it wasn’t a different timezone so there shouldn’t be an issue there, but it is still inconvenient. I’m going to take Baltimore and will even sprinkle the first five/full game parlay on them at +165.
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