Videos by OutKick
Guardians vs. Nationals, 7:05 ET
I’m not quite at fade territory, but I also am probably not someone you want to back at this point. My picks really haven’t been terrible, and I stand by 99% of the ones I’ve made this year, there were only a couple that I wish that I could take back. I’ve been the victim of one bad inning a few times this year, hopefully, that balances out in our favor.
I’ve said numerous times that I’m not a Guardians believer. It is a bit odd considering I focus mostly on pitching (other things too for handicapping, but clearly I start with pitching). The Guardians have a great pitching staff and their hitting is one of the more contact friendly in the league – that stuff makes a big difference. Some teams live and die by the long ball, but the Guardians seem to get things going with station-to-station baseball. Cal Quantrill is on the bump today and his initial numbers are a bit eye-popping, but they aren’t quite as bad as the initial impression. He had to face Seattle twice and has only lasted 9.2 innings between the two outings. He allowed seven earned runs in the games, but what concerns me more than the runs are the hits. He’s getting knocked around a bit right now with 15 hits in those innings. The Washington hitters haven’t had really any experience against Quantrill to speak of, so he should cruise through the first few innings.
The Nationals probably aren’t actually happy to see their home turf. It is early in the season, and they will be bad essentially everywhere they play, but they are just 1-5 on their home field so far. I have to give them a bit of credit here as they have 110 hits on the young season which is actually more than the Guardians have. They trail the Guardians in home runs 5-to-6, which is clearly a sign that neither of these teams are really power focused. In fact, the team stats of the Guardians and Nationals are not that far off in really any category except runs and opponent batting average. They will use Trevor Williams today and he’s been decent for the season with 10.1 innings so far and five earned runs. Only three hitters on the Guardians have experience against him and they are just 3-for-20 collectively against Williams.
I like the under in this game and now the only decision is to take the under through five or nine innings. I think I’ll take under 5 through five innings at -115 because I don’t know how much I want to get involved in bullpens. This game should get through three scoreless – I hope – and then we’d need to dodge five in two innings. I’ll take it.
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