Week 1 was weird, thrilling and unexpected. It was the whole NFL experience that we’ve been craving for months.
There’ll be a lot of overreacting by the fans and media but you know who won’t be overreacting? The sportsbooks.
Every week, I’ll be going through the opening lines of the upcoming NFL slate and stop to focus on lines that look off. Sometimes I’ll make a bet and other times it’ll just be analysis.
- Odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines updated on Monday, noon ET.
NFL Week 2
Thursday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium
- Against the Spread (ATS): Chargers +3.5 (-110), Chiefs -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline (ML): Chargers +145, Chiefs -170
- Total (O/U) — 54 — O: -110, U: -110
My line was Chiefs -3. But, the half-point bump doesn’t incentivize me to run to the window and bet Chargers +3.5.
Pat Mahomes and Co. looked awesome without Tyreek Hill and bulldozed the Cardinals 44-21. Justin Herbert was sensational in L.A.’s 24-19 victory over the Raiders but the Chargers tried to give that game away.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Window (seven games)
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens in M&T Bank Stadium
- ATS: Dolphins +3.5 (-110), Ravens -3.5 (-110)
- ML: Dolphins +160, Ravens -190
- O/U — 43.5 — O: -110, U: -110
BET the DOLPHINS +3.5 (-110).
I’m a TuAnon member and Miami pummelled the Patriots 20-7 in Week 1.
Also, the Dolphins neutralized Lamar Jackson in a 22-10 victory over the Ravens last season. Miami’s defense personnel remains intact despite the head coaching switch and Baltimore looked like crap vs. the Jets in Week 1.
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns in FirstEnergy Stadium
- ATS: Jets +6.5 (-110), Browns -6.5 (-110)
- ML: Jets +220, Browns -260
- O/U — 40.5 — O: -110, U: -110
Both teams’ quarterback situation makes them a stay-away. My line is Browns -6 so there isn’t much value in this number.
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants in MetLife Stadium
- ATS: Panthers +2.5 (-105), Giants -2.5 (-115)
- ML: Panthers +115, Giants -135
- O/U — 43 — O: -105, U: -115
My line is Giants -3.5 but I’m a Giants fan and recuse myself from betting them weekly.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars in TIAA Bank Stadium
- ATS: Colts -4 (-110), Jaguars +4 (-110)
- ML: Colts -195, Jaguars +165
- O/U — 46 — O: -110, U: -110
My line is Colts -4.5 so this is a sharp line according to my numbers. If anything, I lean Jaguars ATS because they showed improvement in Week 1 vs. Washington and Indianapolis laid an egg vs. the Texans.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints in Caesars Superdome
- ATS: Bucs -3 (+100), Saints +3 (-120)
- ML: Bucs -150, Saints +130
- O/U — 45.5 — O: -110, U: -110
BET the SAINTS +3 (-120).
The Saints have dominated the Bucs since Tom Brady went to Tampa: New Orleans is 4-0 straight up and ATS in four regular-season meetings. Furthermore, Bucs underwhelmed in a 19-3 Week 1 win over the Cowboys and sustained several concerning injuries.
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions in Ford Field
- ATS: Commanders +2.5 (-110), Lions -2.5 (-110)
- ML: Commanders +110, Lions -130
- O/U — 48.5 — O: -110, U: -110
BET WASHINGTON on a 6-PT TEASER (-120).
Detroit is addicted to playing in 1-score games and Washington is a better team than last year with Carson Wentz under center. This is one of the few games the Lions are favored in. But, taking the Commanders up through the key number of 7 is an advantage teaser leg I want in my portfolio.
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers in Acrisure Stadium
- ATS: Patriots -1.5 (-110), Steelers +1.5 (-110)
- ML: Patriots -125, Steelers +105
- O/U — 41 — O: -110, U: -110
Lean towards using Steelers in a 6-point teaser leg. However, I’ll need to dig into this handicap a little more before firing off a bet.
Sunday 4 p.m. ET window (five games)
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams in SoFi Stadium
- ATS: Falcons +10 (-110), Rams -10 (-110)
- ML: Off-the-board
- O/U — 47 — O: -115, U: -105
Falcons looked feisty in a 27-26 heart-breaking loss to the Saints Week 1. Whereas the Rams got boat-raced in the NFL Opening Kickoff game. Betting Atlanta ATS is an overreaction but L.A.’s offense, aside from throwing to Cooper Kupp, looked like trash.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers in Levi Stadium
- ATS: Seahawks +9 (-110), 49ers -9 (-110)
- ML: Seahawks +320, 49ers -390
- O/U — 42.5 — O: -110, U: -110
Heavy Lean towards the Seahawks plus the points. But, PASS, for now, because we are still “sight unseen” in Seattle.
Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys in AT&T Stadium
- ATS: Bengals -6.5 (-120), Cowboys +6.5 (+100)
- ML: Bengals -305, Cowboys +255
- O/U — 44.5 — O: -110, U: -110
BET the CINCINNATI BENGALS in a 6-PT TEASER (-120).
Dallas’s offensive line is a shell of what it once was and we remember how the Cowboys looked when Dak Prescott was sidelined with an injury in 2020. Also, Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase should get busy on the AT&T Stadium’s fast track.
Arizona Cardinals at Las Vegas Raiders in Allegiant Stadium
- ATS: Cardinals +4.5 (-110), Raiders -4.5 (-110)
- ML: Cardinals +185, Raiders -215
- O/U — 51.5 — O: -110, U: -110
Lean towards Arizona ATS and as a 6-point teaser leg. The Cardinals aren’t as bad as their 44-21 blowout loss to the Chiefs indicates. The Raiders don’t have a big enough edge to lay 10.5, which would be Arizona’s line after a 6-point teaser increase.
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos in Empower Field at Mile High
- ATS: Texans +10 (-110), Broncos -10 (-110)
- ML: Texans +370, Broncos -460
- O/U — 43.5 — O: -115, U: -105
Like Seattle, we still haven’t seen the new-look Broncos play. Denver has a new head coach and quarterback.
Sunday Night Football
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers in Lambeau Field
- ATS: Bears +9.5 (-110), Packers -9.5 (-110)
- ML: Bears +330, Packers -410
- O/U — 43 — O: -110, U: -110
Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears but Chicago played its ass off in a 19-10 rain-soaked home upset of the 49ers in Week 1. More importantly, Green Bay’s offense was awful in a 23-7 Week 1 loss to the Vikings.
Monday Night Football (two games)
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills in Highmark Stadium
- ATS: Titans +10 (-110), Bills -10 (-110)
- ML: Titans +370, Bills -460
- O/U — 49.5 — O: -110, U: -110
Heavy lean towards Tennessee ATS. I mentioned on last week’s OutKick Bets podcast that Titans plus the points would be an auto-bet if the Bills beat the Rams in L.A. and Tennessee struggled with the Giants.
However, Buffalo looked amazing, Tennessee lost outright to the Giants and this massive number is the oddsmakers daring bettors to take the Titans ATS.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles in Lincoln Financial Field
- ATS: Vikings +2 (-110), Eagles -2 (-110)
- ML: Vikings +110, Eagles -130
- O/U — 50.5 — O: -110, U: -110
Lean Eagles ATS because Kirk Cousins is notoriously horrible in primetime games.
Minnesota’s victory over Green Bay in Week 1 could say more about the Packers without Davante Adams than the Vikings with their new head coach.
Early NFL Week 2 Bet Slip
- Dolphins +3.5 (-110) at Baltimore Ravens
- Saints +3 (-120) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 6-point teaser (-120)
- Bengals -0.5 at Dallas Cowboys
- Commanders +8.5 at Detroit Lions
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