Odds to win the conference tournaments

The regular season in college basketball is all complete and the NCAA tournament field is close to being set. But first every school has to complete its conference tournament. You know, the part of the year where we invalidate the entirety of the regular season by awarding automatic bids to the teams that happen to get hot at the right time instead of the teams that have dominated all season long.

It can be downright infuriating. 

Just ask Murray State. 

5dimes.eu just posted its odds for every team to win its conference tournament. Since I’ll be out in Las Vegas broadcasting from a casino for the second straight year, I decided it was time to step up my gambling on college basketball. I’ve done three or four games a week for the entire season, but betting on teams to win the conference tournament is when it gets really fun. 

I’ll be at the SEC basketball tournament here in Nashville this week, where Kentucky is the most prohibitive favorite to win its conference in the country. 

How prohibitive?

Holy hell. 

SEC tourney

Kentucky -425
Arkansas +900
Georgia +1400
LSU +2000
Florida +2000
Mississippi +2300
Texas A&M +2500
Vanderbilt +3300
South Carolina +6000
Alabama +9000
Tennessee +10000
Missouri +80000
Mississippi State +150000
Auburn +150000

I actually took Vandy at 33-1 here with the idea that the ‘Dores are hot and if they made it to the final against Kentucky I could hedge and lock in a pretty good profit. Vandy blew a game against Tennessee and lost by three at Florida. Otherwise the ‘Dores would have run off 10 straight conference wins to end the season. If Vandy beats Tennessee then the ‘Dores will play Arkansas. That’s a tough game, but not one that the ‘Dores would be a substantial underdog in. Win that one and Vandy would get Georgia or Ole Miss, two teams I think the ‘Dores would be favored against. Then, barring a tremendous upset, would come Kentucky in the final.  

Anyway, I think 33-1 is a steal. 

You can call me an idiot if Vandy loses to Tennessee on Thursday night.

Big Ten tourney

Wisconsin +110 
Ohio State +350
Michigan State +700
Iowa +950
Maryland +1000
Purdue +1400
Illinois +1800
Indiana +2200
Minnesota +3500
Michigan +8000
Nebraska +25000
Penn State +27500
Northwestern +30000
Rutgers +100000

ACC tourney

Duke +150
Virginia +190
Louisville +625
North Carolina +625
Notre Dame +650
NC State +3000
Miami Florida +3500
Pittsburgh +15000
Clemson +20000
Florida State +30000
Wake Forest +50000
Georgia Tech +50000
Boston College +100000
Virginia Tech +150000

That Duke-Virginia finale would be pretty fantastic. But how about the drop off outside the top five here?

Pac-12 tourney

Arizona -175
Utah +240
UCLA +1300
Stanford +1700
Oregon +2100
Arizona State +3500
Colorado +4000
California +12500
Oregon State +20000
Washington +20000
USC +50000
Washington State +80000

Good lord, only two teams are under 13-1 to win the title? Arizona is the second biggest favorite in major conference tourneys. 

Big 12 tourney

Kansas +250
Oklahoma +340
Iowa State +400
Baylor +550
West Virginia +750
Texas +800
Oklahoma State +1300
Kansas State +3000
TCU +5000
Texas Tech +20000

If you had to pick one conference tourney to watch because of the overall competitiveness of the conference, the Big 12 would be it. Six of the 10 teams are at 8-1 or under to win this thing. 

Big East tourney

Villanova -140
Georgetown +500
Butler +550
Xavier +800
St. John’s +850
Providence +1150
Seton Hall +5000
Creighton +5200
Marquette +9000
DePaul +25000

Villanova is the third most likely team to win its conference, and the second biggest major conference favorite after Kentucky. 

A-10 tourney

Davidson +240
VCU +325
Dayton +360
Rhode Island +550
George Washington +600
Richmond +700
St. Bonaventure +2200
La Salle +2800
Massachusetts +3400
Saint Joseph’s +8500
Duquesne +50000
George Mason +50000
Fordham +100000
Saint Louis +100000

If you’re looking for a conference that’s going to steal an at-large bid, the A-10 might be your most likely option. I took GW at 6-1 here — and I was really hoping the odds would have been more like 15-1 because I would have really loaded up on the Colonials then. But it wouldn’t shock me if Rhode Island, Richmond or GW found a way to make a title run here.  

Mountain West tourney

Boise State +220
San Diego State +260
Colorado State +335
UNLV +400
Wyoming +1150
Utah State +1600
New Mexico +1600
Fresno State +5300
Air Force +10000
Nevada +100000

Conference USA tourney

Louisiana Tech +220
UTEP +225
Old Dominion +315
UAB +500
Western Kentucky +1200
Middle Tennessee State +1400
Texas-San Antonio +2700
North Texas +7000
Rice +7500
Florida International +12500
Charlotte +17500
Marshall +20000

MAC tourney

Buffalo +120
Central Michigan +260
Toledo +500
Kent State +900
Bowling Green +1200
Akron +1400
Western Michigan +2000
Eastern Michigan +2200
Northern Illinois +10000
Ohio +27500
Miami Ohio +50000
Ball State +100000

West Coast tourney

Gonzaga -375
BYU +325
Portland +2050
Pepperdine +2100