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We hope you had a great slate of Thanksgiving football. We went 1-2 with our picks losing on the Lions moneyline (if you took the points, also recommended, then you were 2-2 or 2-1). Either way, we get a nice lineup of games Sunday and are looking to cash.
Buccaneers at Colts
Teams like to play the champs, its usually a measuring stick of how good (or bad) you really are. The Buccaneers have lived up to their billing as one of the best teams in the NFL. Carson Wentz has been pretty average with the Colts overall, but they are competitive which is most of what you can ask for in the games. I think that Colts, coming off a big win in Buffalo are not going to be ready for the Buccaneers though. Tampa’s defense should not underestimate the Colts, but they also aren’t going to let Jonathan Taylor run all over the field on them either. Brady shouldn’t have too hard of a time playing here and getting his team in the end zone. I also think he still hates the Colts from all of his matchups with Peyton Manning over the years. I’ll gladly play the Buccaneers -3.5 in this one at -112. I’d be fine buying the half point and getting to -3.
Falcons at Jaguars
I guess if there was ever a game that you could say… well, this looks like one that they should win, it would be this one. Sadly, you could say it about either team. The Falcons should beat the Jaguars but I don’t believe that anyone should be surprised if the Jaguars won this game. Trevor Lawrence has been a disappointment so far, but he could have his best game of the year against a bad Falcons defense. Matt Ryan has the experience, he has better offensive weapons, but he’s also constantly looking like this is his last season. I don’t see a lot of points being scored in this one as both offenses really struggle to sustain anything. I’ll take under 45.5 at -110.
Steelers at Bengals
I don’t always put much stock into what happened in a previous game. But, there are some indicators that help in the analysis and process. Najee Harris is one of those guys that I like to play player props on because of his game usage. He’s targeted all the time and he is an every-down running back. In the first matchup against the Bengals, he had 14 carries and 40 yards, which isn’t great, but what was impressive was his 14 catches for 102 yards. The Steelers were playing from behind for the game, so that contributed to Harris and the passing game being prominent. This was the only 100-yard receiving game he’s had all year though. He has a total of 27.5 and has exceeded that number in six of his ten games. I think he will surpass that total and I’ll take it at -113.