The NFL MVP race is down to three, and don’t expect that to change over the next seven weeks. It’s no surprise that the candidates are the NFL’s three best QBs: Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson.
Rank them how you want, but here is the correct order:
3. Aaron Rodgers
It’s close. Inches separate No .1 and No. 3. And in the end, Aaron Rodgers very well could win the award for the third time.
Rodgers has had one bad game this season. A zero touchdown, two-interception disaster against the Bucs. A 7-1 great-to-bad game ratio is impressive. Yet, his competitors have yet to record one of the latter.
Of Rodgers, Mahomes and Wilson, Rodgers has the best chance to lead his team to the first seed, which the last three MVP winners have done.
Wilson’s team doesn’t have a defense, and Mahomes has to overcome the Steelers. The Packers’ remaining schedule has few losable games and several cake walks, which will help Rodgers pad his stats.
At 117.5, Rodgers leads the NFL in passer rating, ahead of Wilson’s 117.2 (second) and Mahomes’ 115.9 (third).
2. Patrick Mahomes
Based on his standards, Patrick Mahomes has been lackluster at times this season. But if we compare him to normal standards, he’s been playing at another level the last two weeks, throwing nine touchdown passes.
When Mahomes is clicking, no player can go toe-to-toe with him. Mahomes is rocking a ridiculous 25-1 touchdown-interception ratio and is among the best in every statistical passing category: second in yards, second in touchdowns, third in passer rating, and second in QBR.
The good news is that Mahomes and the Chiefs still have significant games left against the Raiders, Saints, Bucs and Dolphins, all of which will likely be broadcast nationally. Mahomes’ MVP chances ride on those four games.
The bad news is that the Chiefs are likely to lose a few of them. If they are to win, they will more than Mahomes to do it. As seen against the Bills and Patriots, the Chiefs’ formula in tight games doesn’t rely solely on Mahomes.
1. Russell Wilson
Slow down, media.
Russell Wilson came into Sunday as the clear MVP frontrunner. A mediocre game doesn’t knock him off. Instead, it opens up the race. Wilson’s lead may not be what it was three weeks ago, but it is still a lead.
Wilson is on pace for 56 passing touchdowns. 56.
Don’t worry about his eight interceptions. To win, he is required to do more than any single player in the NFL. Put Wilson on the Packers or Chiefs, and those eight are down to one or two.
Seattle is not a 6-2 football team, yet that’s their record nonetheless.
Given his early-season lead and the fact that he has never gotten a single vote, Wilson will likely get some close votes now. That is, unless Rodgers or Mahomes pulls away. And neither have.