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NFL Futures: Super Bowl

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In a little over 8 weeks, the greatest sport and the best sport to gamble on returns. People have started to break down who will be on their fantasy team, and fans have convinced themselves that this will be their year, even though their team missed the playoffs last year. This is the time when fans are the most hopeful, no injuries are happening in training camp, and your heart isn’t broken because you haven’t yet realized that your team sucks.

Of course, there’s the bet of what team will win the Super Bowl, but over at FanDuel, there’s many more. Including the correct matchups of what teams will be in the Super Bowl, which conference will win the Super Bowl, and which division will win the Super Bowl.

The most popular bet is which team will win the Super Bowl. As of today there are 10 teams that are the most favored to win: Chiefs +500, Bucs +650, Bills +1200, 49ers +1300, Rams +1400, Ravens +1400, Packers +1600, Browns +1600, Seahawks +2300, and Colts +2400. The three teams who have the highest odds are Jaguars +10,000, Texans +13,000, and Lions +15,000.

Kansas City is the favorite at +500 and is looking to make the Super Bowl for the 3rd year in a row. The Chiefs still have Andy Reid coaching, Patrick Mahomes under center, and the offensive weapons of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. To go along with their 1st overall offense last year, they had the 4th overall defense. Their only question is a new offensive line since losing LT Eric Fisher in free agency, and they added LG JJoe Thuney and C Creed Humphrey. There’s a reason why the Chiefs are the favorite, but I won’t be picking them since it’s boring to pick the favorite, and for a future bet, it’s always fun to have huge odds going into the playoffs.

Tampa Bay is the second favorite, with +650 to win the Super Bowl. The Bucs would be the first team since the 04-05 Patriots to win back-to-back Super Bowls. Tampa Bay brought back their starters which led them to the 5th overall offense and 4th overall defense. Is it possible for the 43-year-old Tom Brady to go on another deep playoff run, or will his age finally catch up to him? It seems like he can do anything since reveling that last year he played with a torn MCL. I have no idea how that is possible, I know Brady has been rubbing salt in the wounds of anybody who doubts him, but I don’t think the Bucs will go back to back.

Buffalo is the third favorite with +1200 to win the Super Bowl. Here’s where we start to get into juicy good odds. Last year the Bills made it to the AFC Championship Game but lost to the Chiefs. Having the Chiefs in the same conference is bad luck for the Bills ever making it to the Super Bowl. Last year the Bills finished with 3rd overall offense, led by Josh Allen, who finished 2nd in MVP voting. They added more firepower in free agency since signing WR Emmanuel Sanders and TE Jason Hollister. Their defense finished with the 10th overall defense. In their last six games, they only allowed 18.3 points per game. I have loved what the Bills have done in the last couple of years, but I don’t think it’s enough to get past the juggernaut that is the Chiefs.

San Fransisco is the fourth favorite with +1300. I believe that an NFC West team will make the Super Bowl, but I don’t think it will be the 49ers. Last year they were riddled with injuries and made dramatic changes in the offseason since drafting QB Trey Lance. It seems like Jimmy G’s future in San Fran is on life support. If Trey Lance is going to be the quarterback of the 49ers, he’ll make history if the 49ers end up winning the Super Bowl. No rookie quarterback has ever won or made the Super Bowl. The only rookie quarterbacks to make the AFC or NFC Championship game is Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez. The odds are not in the 49ers’ favor, and if they traded up to draft Lance, the chances that he will be their starter and not a piece for the future is high.

Los Angeles and Baltimore are tied as the fifth favorite at +1400 odds. I’ll talk about Baltimore first since I’ll keep it sweet and simple. I don’t believe in Lamar Jackson in the playoffs. Last year in the Division round versus the Bills, Jackson threw for 14-24, 162 yards, 1 interception, and 1 fumble. I don’t think the Ravens can ever win the Super Bowl with Jackson as their quarterback unless his passing game takes a dramatic step forward. They decided that Jared Goff wasn’t the quarterback of the future and decided to trade Goff for Matthew Stafford. The addition of Stafford will improve the Rams offense, which was the 14th overall offense. Aaron Donald led them to the 2nd overall defense. I’m very bullish on the Rams, especially with them getting +1400 odds.

I’m not going to go through every team, but since the Browns fans are awesome, I’ll write why they could win the Super Bowl. Last year the Browns gave the Chiefs the hardest time during the AFC playoffs as they lost 17-22. They had the 14th overall offense led by a great running game and the 21st overall defense. If their defense can keep improving, another year of Baker developing, and Beckham Jr being healthy, why can’t the Browns win? Going through the Chiefs is rough for any AFC team, but if last year was any indication, then maybe the Browns are closer to the Chiefs than people realize.

The next bet is choosing the correct matchup. This is where you can hit huge odds if you bet the two correct teams. The Chiefs are in the three most favored matchups. The seven most favored matchups are Chiefs vs. Bucs +1400, Chiefs vs. 49ers +2400, Chiefs vs. Rams +2600, Bills vs. Bucs +2700, Ravens vs. Bucs +2900, Chiefs vs. Packers +3200, and Browns vs. Bucs +3500. The AFC is the Chiefs division, and it seems as if nobody will knock them off the mountain. It’s not a hot take that I’m taking them to make it to win the AFC. In the NFC, though, it’s much more wide open. The Bucs being the reigning Super Bowl Champions, will, of course, have the highest odds, but after that, it gets more interesting. The 49ers are the second favorite to win the NFC, but as I said before, I don’t know how much I trust Trey Lance. Even if they go with Jimmy G, I’ve seen enough not to trust him. My pick is the Chiefs vs. Rams +2600. The Rams defense will carry them, and Matthew Stafford is the new quarterback, will give their offense a shot they desperately need. An interesting one to keep an eye out for is Chiefs vs. Packers +3200. If Rodgers stays in Green Bay, they will be great again, and at +3200 might be worth tossing a little on.

The next bet is which conference will win the Super Bowl. The AFC is the favorite at -122, and the underdog is NFC at +100. This is 1000% because of the Chiefs. In the top five teams to win the Super Bowl, there are three NFC teams and only two AFC teams. The AFC has the better teams with the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, and Browns. If you’re bullish on a team, I would toss more on them to either win the Super Bowl or have the correct matchup since those odds are great.

The last bet is which division will win the Super Bowl. The odds are currently: AFC West +320, NFC South +420, NFC West +420, AFC North +550, AFC East +550, NFC North +850, AFC South +1000, and NFC East +1100. The AFC West and NFC South are because of the Chiefs and the Buccaneers. With the NFC West, you are getting two teams in the top five to win the Super Bowl and three in the top ten. For the AFC West, it’s only the Chiefs since the rest of the division has plus odds even to make the playoffs, same thing with the NFC South. You might as well sprinkle some money on the best division in the NFL.

Written by David Lawrence

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