NFL Futures: Regular Season MVP

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In a little over 5 weeks, the greatest sport and the best sport to gamble on returns. People have started to break down who will be on their fantasy team, and fans have convinced themselves that this will be their year, even though their team missed the playoffs last year. This is the time when fans are the most hopeful, training camp has just begun, there’s an excitement in the air, and your heart isn’t broken because you haven’t yet realized that your team sucks.

Today we will look at the most popular player award, the regular season MVP. In the last seven years, the quarterback position has dominated the award. Will this be another year of quarterbacks dominating, or will a running back surprise the world and be the first to win since 2012 when Adrian Peterson won?

Patrick Mahomes +500

The 2018 MVP is the favorite to win this year. The main band is back again for another run. WR Tyreek Hill, Te Travis Kelce, and head coach Andy Reid are still with the Chiefs, but WR Sammy Watkins is no longer in Kansas City. Last year Mahomes led the Chiefs to the Super Bowl, where they lost to the Bucs. Seeing Mahomes being incredible is starting to become normal. Last year Mahomes had a 66.3 completion percentage, 4740 yards, 38 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and an 82.9 QBR. Compared to his MVP year, where he had a 66 completion percentage, 5097 yards, 50 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and an 80.3 QBR. Will Mahomes reclaim the MVP this year? Betting on the chalk is no fun, so I won’t be taking him.

Aaron Rodgers +1000

The reigning MVP is the second favorite for the award this year. Last year Rodgers won as he had a 70.7 completion percentage, 4299 yards, 48 touchdowns, 5 interceptions and an 84.4 QBR. He is looking to be the first MVP to go back to back since Peyton Manning did it in 09-08. In the first press conference of the Packers season Rodgers went scorched earth as he tore into Green Bay’s front office. He said how he thought about retiring, and who knows if he will be on the Packers after this year. Could we see him go scotch earth again this year, win the MVP, and then rub it in the entire Packers organization as he leaves them? Since nobody has gone back to back since Peyton who just happens to be one of the best quarterbacks of all time I’m not taking Rodgers to win MVP.

Tom Brady +1200

The old man keeps doing it, he led the Bucs to a Super Bowl victory, and this year he is the third favorite for MVP, even though he’s 43 years old, and this will be his 21st season in the NFL. Brady last won the award in 2017, and will it be this year that he wins his 4th MVP? Last year he finished with a 65.7 completion percentage, 4633 yards, 40 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a 72.5 QBR. One of the biggest reasons the Bucs won it all last year was because of their offensive weapons. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and the rest of the starters are back this year. I know that Brady has been proving people wrong for years upon years, but I’m not taking him to win the MVP this year.

Josh Allen +1300

The young stud finished second in MVP voting as he finished with a 69.2 completion percentage, 4544 yards, 37 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and a 81.7 QBR. What changed for Allen was that he became extremely more accurate. In his rookie year he had a 52.8 completion percentage, and two years ago he finished with 58.8. The Bills added more wide receiver power by signing Emmanuel Sanders to go along with Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley. It’s surprising that Allen isn’t higher since he finished second last year. If you are bullish on the Bills and you believe that last year wasn’t a blimp for Allen and that he has really turned the corner it’s worth it to throw a little something on Allen.

Dak Prescott +1500

I’m going to keep this one very short. This is 1000% because Cowboys fans have driven down Dak’s odds. Prescott is returning from a broken ankle that made him miss most of last year. Why put money on a team that might not even make the playoffs and a player who is returning from a major injury?

Matthew Stafford +1700

If you’ve read my other articles on the NFL futures, you know how bullish I am on the Rams, including Matthew Stafford. Stafford was traded from the Lions to the Rams for Jared Goff. Stafford goes from Matt Patrica as his head coach to the offensive mastermind that is Sean McVay. Last year with the Lions, Stafford finished with a 64.2 completion percentage, 4084 yards, 26 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and a 68.4 QBR. Stafford gets a wide receiving core of Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and DeSean Jackson, which is a big step from what he had with Detroit. I’m either going to look like a genius or an absolute idiot with how much I believe in Los Angeles.

Russell Wilson +2000

Will this be the year that Wilson finally gets an MVP vote? It’s shocking how Wilson has been a top quarterback in this league but has never gotten one vote for MVP. Last year it looked like Wilson would at least get some MVP votes with his first-half stats, but he then fell apart in the second half. Wilson led Seattle to 459 total points, which was the most in franchise history. Pete Carrol let Russ throw, but it wasn’t enough for Russ. Last year Wilson finished with a 68.8 completion percentage, 4212 yards, 40 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, and a 73.5 QBR. Wilsons stats might be extremely high this year since I think that Seattle’s defense will be terrible, and Russ will need to be in shootouts for the Seahawks to win games.

Baker Mayfield +2600

Baker led the Browns to their first winning season in 12 years. Last year Baker finished with a 62.8 completion percentage, 3563 yards, 26 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and a 72.2 QBR. Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr lead Cleveland’s wide receiving core, hopefully, OBJ will be healthy this year after he tore his ACL, and Baker and OBJ can finally have the success that many thought they would. It will be hard for Baker to ever win the MVP since they’re a great running team led by Nick Chubb.

Carson Wentz +4000

Wentz is a long shot at winning the MVP, but it’s worth it to talk about at +4000 odds. The Eagles decided that Wentz wasn’t the quarterback of the future and decided to choose Jalen Hurts. Wentz was traded to the Colts and reunited with Frank Reich, the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia, during 2017. In 2017 through 13 games, Wentz was one of the favorites to win MVP before getting hurt; he finished with a 60.2 completion percentage, 3296 yards, 33 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and a 78.5 QBR. Will Wentz stay healthy enough to be in the MVP race, and will reuniting with Reich be enough?

Derrick Henry +5000

I’ve talked about practically all of the quarterbacks, but will a running back finally break the streak of not winning since 2012? Derrick Henry is by far the best running back in the league, and he has +5000 odds. During the 2000’s it wasn’t a huge surprise for running backs to win; in 06, LaDainian Tomlinson, 05 Shaun Alexander, and 00 Marshall Faulk won. Last year Henry had 2027 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 126.7 yards per game. The Titans 11-5 record was largely due to how great Henry was. If you want to toss a little bit on a running back, Derrick Henry is the best of the best.

Aaron Donald +12000

There have only been two defensive players in the NFL history to win the MVP; 1971 Alan Page and 1986 Lawrence Taylor. Donald is by far the best defensive player in the NFL, and many experts argue that if you were to redraft the entire NFL that they would take Donald with the first overall pick. If any defensive player could win the MVP, it would be Donald. Last year he had 13.5 sacks, 45 combined tackles, 4 forced fumbles, and 1 fumble recovery. The chances of Donald winning the MVP are slim, but if history happens, it would be fun to have a little bit of money on it.

Written by David Lawrence

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