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If you’re still on a high from the 2023 NFL Draft, don’t worry, oddsmakers will feed your addiction. Sportsbooks have already released odds for who will be the 1st overall choice in next year’s draft.
The runaway favorite to be the 1st pick in the 2024 NFL Draft is obvious: USC QB Caleb Williams (-550). Williams won every college football award imaginable last season including the 2023 Heisman Trophy.
Just like Alabama QB Bryce Young in the 2023 NFL Draft, Williams is essentially a lock to go 1st in 2024. There was a lot of pre-draft noise but we all knew the morning of that Young was going No. 1.
That said, you need a HUGE betting bankroll to justify laying -550 and waiting a year. And even if, I still don’t think betting Williams at -550 is a plus-EV (“expected value”) wager.
Odds to be 1st Pick In 2024 NFL Draft
- Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
North Carolina Tar Heels QB Drake Maye (+600)
Maye blew up in his first season as UNC’s starting quarterback. He is 2022 First-Team All-ACC and won several conference awards such as ACC Player of the Year and Offensive Player of the Year.
There is a world where Maye wins the Heisman next year, Williams gets hurt and Maye jumps him as the top quarterback prospect on NFL draft big boards.
However, I’m not investing in this coming to fruition. I need better than 6-to-1 for a sports betting future that won’t be graded for another year.
Best value: Ohio State Buckeyes WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (+2000)
The Houston Texans traded their 2024 1st-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals for the 3rd pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Arizona could get the 1st pick in 2024 if Houston has the worst record in the NFL or with its own terribleness.
Cardinals QB Kyler Murray tore his ACL and they are hopeful Murray returns mid-way through 2024. If the Cardinals suck, would it be shocking for them to shelve Murray for the rest of the season?
With this in mind, there’s a chance Arizona has the 1st two picks of the 2024 NFL Draft. Since Cardinals WR De’Andre Hopkins will be 31 this summer, I could see Murray pushing Arizona to draft Harrison.
He is a unanimous 2022 All-American while leading the Buckeyes in receptions (77), receiving yards (1,263), and receiving TDs (8). If Harrison puts up similar numbers with a 1st-year starter under center at Ohio State, he will be a top-five pick.
Arizona drafted OT Paris Johnson Jr. in the 2023 NFL Draft based on Murray’s recommendation. This would hurt Notre Dame OT Joe Alt‘s (+2500) and Penn State OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu‘s (+2500) chances to go 1st.
BET: Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (+2000) to go 1st in 2024 NFL Draft
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