This is the last in the series of NFL Betting Guides. This one is around player props. We will dive a bit into some statistics you should consider and how you look at player props to make for a profitable NFL season.
There are more bet options available for player props on NFL games than almost any other sport out there. Usually, they are pretty reasonable with the juice too. You can bet on a touchdown scorer at any point in the game, or bet on who will score first in the game overall. The point being, there are a ton of available options out there for you, start with figuring out what you prefer to invest in – something mostly luck-based (touchdowns) or something maybe more skill-based (yardage props).
Identify a trend
Sometimes you get really lucky and find a profitable trend. Davante Adams caught 18 touchdowns in the regular season last year. For a while, he was listed at plus money to snag a touchdown before it started becoming obvious he was very likely to score. More impressively, though, in 14 games he played in, Adams scored the FIRST touchdown in six of the games and he added at least one more where he scored the first Packers touchdown. It was a very profitable trend because even close to the end of the season he was +400 or so to score the first touchdown of the game. These are not easy to spot, they take a ton of time evaluating the box scores, looking at averages, and other spots. However, there are a LOT of fantasy football experts that share trends and items they get from research departments that can help you identify a trend and start looking at it from a value perspective.
In order to bet a player prop, it actually starts at the game level. It’s easy enough to say oh the Jets suck on defense, Josh Allen will easily throw for 300 yards. Maybe, but what if the Bills get a big lead and run the clock out? Or they take Allen out in the fourth quarter when he has 278 yards and two touchdowns. You have to evaluate how you think the game will happen. You can start by checking totals, spreads, and line movement. This at least gives you a start of how you think the game will go. If you’re comfortable with how you think the game will go, you can start to examine the players and how you think they will get there. Maybe you think Allen isn’t as safe of a bet for his yardage, but you’ve seen he has been scrambling for 7.5 yards-per-carry on the year and the Jets are getting pressure but not sacks. You might consider playing his rushing total instead because of the information you found coupled with how you think the game will go.
Targets and attempts are my favorite stats to examine for prop bets. A players targets tell me a lot more than yardage or other stats. These can be misleading, because one game a player can get 15 targets, but that could be more than he amassed in the previous three games combined. Just make sure you check game logs to see if there is consistency. Anyway, targets tell a lot more about how many looks a player is getting. This is a great starting point for over/under receiving yardage bets. Deep threats usually don’t get many targets (with some exceptions) but if they make one reception, usually your under bet is toast. For running backs, a backup that doesn’t get many attempts is something I like checking out too. See if that person is getting goalline work, if they are, you’re not likely to get a lot of yardage. But, perhaps the team is also looking to limit the number of attempts on their primary back as they gear up for the playoffs, so you see the backup is getting more attempts each game, and now they play at team that gives up a lot of yards to running backs.
I mentioned this before, a lot of these are not stand-alone tips. They are all pieces to the puzzle of trying to figure out which route to take. Good luck this season!