NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

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After a few weeks of some relatively boring names in our primetime games, we get another good game. Unfortunately, just like everything else in our lives the last two years, COVID has impacted this one and might spoil it. The Packers will be without WR Devante Adams. That might balance the game a bit as the Cardinals have some injuries on their team that might’ve made this an easy one for the Packers.

Green Bay marches into Arizona for a matchup of two NFC contenders. After a really crappy opening game from Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, they’ve bounced back and made great progress with six consecutive victories. The team is, of course, led by Rodgers. His favorite target, Adams, will be out, as we mentioned, and so will Allen Lazard. It is possible that Marquez Valdez-Scantling returns for the game, but still isn’t confirmed. That leaves tight end Robert Tonyan and running back Aaron Jones as the primary receivers in this game.   

The Cardinals are still undefeated, not super surprising, but also not something that should’ve been expected. Kyler Murray looked great to start last season too before falling off the rails. Maybe this year is different though. He’s already over 2,000 yards and he has a 17-5 TD to interception total. Their running game is a two-headed monster with Chase Edmonds being a bit more versatile and James Connor getting a lot of goal-line work.

If this game was between two fully healthy teams, I couldn’t imagine the line being a touchdown difference. Probably closer to an Arizona -3 as the home team favorite. I think that both coaches are smart and will use their strengths well in this game. It would make sense for the Packers to get Jones as many touches as possible, and it makes sense for the Cardinals to push the issue offensively in hopes of putting the Packers away early. I’m going to play the Packers 1st half +4 points at -120. If the Packers can control the pace in the first half, and come out with a strong gameplan for their limited offensive weapons, I think they have a better chance to cover the first half than the full game.

I also will play Aaron Jones over 59.5 rushing yards at -114. Normally without the starting three receivers, you force the quarterback to throw the ball. You’re not going to do that to Rodgers. Jones is still talented and I expect him to get a bit more work than normal.      

Written by David Troy

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