NFL Best Bets for Week 6

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NFL Week 6 started with an absolutely massive heartbreak to bettors. I was, sadly, on the wrong side of this as Philly decided… hey, let’s go for two! Then they converted and ended the game with a six-point loss. Of course, we were on 6.5 or 7 depending on when you bet it. I also recommended Brady over 2.5 touchdowns. He had two in the first quarter. He had two at the end of the game. Oh well. Onto the weekend where we have a player prop, spread, and total to play.

Najee Harris

Last week we went with a rookie, Kyle Pitts, and hit the prop. This week we will try another one, Najee Harris. Harris has been a good piece of the puzzle for the Steelers this season and this week he gets to face a Seahawks defense that has allowed 140 rushing yards to opponents. Harris is coming off of his best rushing performance of the season where he received 23 attempts and rewarded the faith in him with 122 yards. That was against a good Broncos defense. The Seattle defense is bad. I’m playing Harris to get over 71.5 rushing yards at -114. I’m also looking at him for 2+ touchdowns as a sprinkle (+390).

Rams vs. Giants

Better coach? Check. Better Quarterback? Check. Better Defense? Check. Healthier? Check. What exactly do the Rams not have an edge in for this matchup against the Giants? Perhaps it is the travel that people are concerned about. Daniel Jones is expected to play, but he will likely be without Kenny Golladay and still have to deal with Jaylen Ramsey, Aaron Donald and the rest of the Rams defense. With Jared Goff, I’d say this line was too high, but with Matthew Stafford, and even with some of his questionable decision-making, he should be able to score points against a Giants defense that is allowing 27 points per game. I’m going to play the Rams at -8 at -110. If it goes to 10, I’d probably lean more towards the Giants. I’ve seen shops have different numbers, but FanDuel is offering -8 at the time of this writing.

Chargers vs. Ravens

The Chargers just played in a game that had 89 points scored. The Ravens last game had 56 points. So you know these two teams are going to put up a ton of points, right? Not in my opinion. I think this game is a little too high. The Ravens are likely to take the opportunity to run the ball as the Chargers are allowing teams to get 147 yards per game on the ground. If they do run early and often, the pace should slow down. Justin Herbert has looked great this year, and the Ravens defense has not been impressive, but Herbert’s worse game of the season was a trip to Washington for the opener. Traveling to the East region hasn’t been easy on him in his career so far, in each game he’s had less than 50 as his adjusted QB rating. I’m expecting points, just not 52. Play under 51.5 at -115.  

Written by David Troy

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