NFL Best Bets for Week 5

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We picked up a nice win with the Rams covering the spread on Thursday. Unfortunately, that was about all we grabbed – certainly it wasn’t a lack of opportunities though. Onto the Sunday slate! We will share a side, a total, and a player prop.

Kyle Pitts

I usually save the player prop for the end, but we’ve missed on I think all four I’ve shared in these pieces, so I’m moving it around in hopes that changes our fortunes. (Superstitions are fun, aren’t they?) Anyway, if it doesn’t happen for Kyle Pitts this week, it might not happen this year. Pitts is facing a Jets defense that has been solid against Tight Ends so far this year, only allowing 165 yards over 4 games. But, the advantage is that he’s facing the Jets without Calvin Ridley who is not traveling to London for the game. That frees up about 10 targets a game and Pitts is already second on the team. I’m going to play Pitts over 61.5 yards for the game. I also like his anytime touchdown prop.

Titans vs. Jaguars

Sorry, I’m not buying the line movement. Do we really think the Jaguars are just going to come out and beat the Titans after the week they’ve had? The Titans just lost to the Jets (and the Jets aren’t terrible, but the Titans had no business losing that game). I’ve said for over a year now, the Titans tend to play only a half of a game. I think this week they come out and play a full game in response to their loss. Derrick Henry is going to have a great game, last year he had 299 yards in two games against them. Urban Meyer was a distraction this week that I’m sure the Jaguars are looking to respond from, so maybe that is motivation, but I don’t see them stopping the Titans’ offense enough. Play the Titans -4.5 at -114.

Packers vs. Bengals

The total opened for this game at 48 and has been bet up since. I’m not surprised. This is basically predicting about eight scores between the two teams. Neither has a defense that is incredibly reliable or very stingy. Both have quarterbacks that can, and will, air it out. The running game favors Green Bay quite a bit, but they aren’t going to ask Aaron Rodgers to just hand the ball off to Aaron Jones a bunch of times. While this total is approaching a fairly high number that I wouldn’t play – probably 52 – I still think we can squeeze in our over. Only one Bengal game has gone over this total this season, and that took an overtime period to get there. They’ve had extra time to prepare and the fresh legs should help them offensively keep pace with the Packers. I’m playing the over 50.5 at -115.  

Written by David Troy

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