NFL Best Bets for TNF: Steelers-Vikings

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We made an absolute killing on Monday Night Football with a +190 winner, a +850 first touchdown winner, and cashing a half-unit on the under. We only missed the Bills covering the spread. Let’s see if we can do something similar in this game, we should have a ton of data considering the Steelers or Seahawks seem to play in the primetime games.

The Steelers have gone 2-2-1 over the last five games and beat Baltimore by just one point at home last week. That was a surprising win to me, but Baltimore also hasn’t been very consistent this season. Then again, who has aside from the Buccaneers and Patriots? Anyway, Big Ben is probably in his last season and isn’t doing anything significantly better than his backups. Najee Harris is a solid running back, but when you don’t need to fear the passing game much, it makes it significantly easier to stop the running game.

The Vikings just lost to the Lions. They’ve lost three of their last five games, but all losses came on the road. I don’t want to make it seem like it was a complete embarrassment to lose to the Lions, either. They have been playing very tough lately and were in a lot of the games they’ve been playing lately. Eventually, they needed to knock the door down on the victory column. But, this is about the Vikings who come into the game clearly not playing their best football. Kirk Cousins has played very well and has a strong wide receiving duo in Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. (Thielen is likely out for this game.) Dalvin Cook has been fine this season, but he’s injured frequently.

For this game, the line definitely takes into account the fact that the Vikings are not playing well at the moment. It is suggesting, essentially, that if this was played on a neutral field it would be a pick’em. I’m not on that side. I think the Vikings are a better team. I’m going to play them at -3 at -110. At home, and coming off a loss that, again, many consider embarrassing (it wasn’t), I think they will be happy to get back home and play again.

The Steelers still have a pretty competent defense and play in low-scoring games. I do think this could get out of hand if Cousins starts throwing a bunch of touchdown passes, but I don’t think that will happen in the first half. I expect the teams to feel each other out and struggle to start – especially the Steelers. I’m going to play the Vikings in the first half -1.5 at -125. I’m also taking the under on the first half 22.5 total points at -125.

If we can hit another first touchdown scorer, I’m going with Justin Jefferson at +500.

Written by David Troy

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