NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night: Chiefs at Chargers

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NFL Week 15 is here and it starts with a fun divisional game between the Chiefs and the Chargers. Our stretch of first touchdown scorers ended at three, and frankly I was pretty off on the game overall from Monday Night Football, but we swept Sunday and we are up a ton from those first touchdown scorer props, so let’s look to get back on track this week.

The Chiefs are starting to look a bit better than they did at the beginning of the season. There is one concern remaining for me with them: Travis Kecle. He has just five touchdowns and less than 1,000 yards on the season. It isn’t as though he has been worthless, but it seems like he isn’t playing at a level that we are accustomed to. Maybe they are saving him for the playoffs? It would be smart – try to develop wide receivers and other options now. Either way, their biggest issue, the defense, has been significantly better during this six-game winning streak. They have allowed less than 17 points in every game, and less than 10 in four of the six games.

The Chargers already beat the Chiefs once at the beginning of the season. That was as a visiting team. Now they are at home ready to take them on once again. The Chargers looked like potential Super Bowl contenders but now seem like they will be battling for a playoff spot. I like the Chargers offense, but they’ve shown spurts of inconsistency.

I’ll start this by saying I’m taking the Chiefs at -3. It is never fun to take an inter-division home dog, but the way the Chiefs are currently playing it will be really difficult to beat them. Simply put, they look like they are a real Super Bowl team again. Patrick Mahomes is still one of, or the best, quarterbacks in the NFL. The offense will be prepared, and after allowing 30 points to the Chargers in the first matchup, I think the defense will try to step up.

I’m also taking the under on this game. 52.5 is too many points. When the Chiefs offense was decent and the Chargers defense was playing well, the teams combined for 54 points. This is a Thursday game, which typically is slower and has fewer points. Couple that with the Chiefs defense playing well, and the Chargers defense playing better at home (normally at least, there are a couple of outliers), this seems like a lower scoring game.

If we can hit a first scorer, I’ll play Clyde Edwards-Helaire at +800. There are a lot of weapons, and usually, they throw it in the redzone, but I like the chances for CEH against a Chargers team that has allowed 18 total touchdowns to running backs.

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Written by David Troy

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