NFL Best Bets for Sunday, December 26, 2021

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I hope everyone has had a wonderful Christmas and that we can pay off some of the debt from those presents you purchased. Let’s get right into these games.

Lions at Falcons

I’ve been going really well with the Lions games in the past few weeks and feel like I have a good feel for how this team is playing. This does not seem like a game they will win. It is realistic that they can cover the spread, but the Falcons still have an “if-everything-goes-right” shot at making the playoffs – which seems ridiculous to say. Their chances are estimated at just 1%, but even if there is hope, that can lead to motivation. I mentioned that last week was the reason I thought they could pull out a win in San Francisco. I will take the Falcons to win this game by a touchdown, covering the 6-point spread.

 Steelers at Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes looks like he has found his rhythm a bit more than he did in the first few weeks of the season. That isn’t exactly a surprise, but this also is coinciding with their seven-game win streak. Mahomes has only thrown four interceptions in the last seven games, after throwing nine in the first seven games of the season. The Chiefs also have improved defensively. Last week they allowed the Chargers to score 28 points, but the high was 17 over the previous six games. On the Steelers’ side, they are very hard to predict. The Steelers don’t have any idea when they will play well, or when they won’t. The only thing I can say is that over the past three away games, they’ve put up points, and they’ve also allowed a bunch of points. I’m going to take the over on this game as I expect the Chiefs to score, but the Steelers seem to match scoring on the road. Play over 45 at -110.

Broncos at Raiders

The Raiders and Broncos game seems to have too high of a total to me. Neither team is loaded on offense right now. The Broncos still have a solid defense, and even with games usually having higher scoring in Las Vegas, I don’t see this one getting there. I think the Broncos’ defense is better than the Raiders’ offense, and should hold Derek Carr to maybe two touchdowns. The Raiders are also not great at rushing the ball, so it is unlikely to me that they will use that aspect of the game to exploit the Broncos. Amazingly enough, the Broncos season averages are almost exactly what the Raiders are allowing to opposing offenses. If it matches, I’d expect the Broncos to win this game something like 21-17. I’ll play the under 41 at -115.

Written by David Troy

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