Saturday brings us a couple of games in the NFL and that brings us the opportunity to cash some tickets. This past Monday, we went 2-0 on plays and missed our +1200 first touchdown scorer when it went to the other Steelers receiver. Let’s see what we should put money on for Saturday’s slate.
Chiefs at Broncos
Denver was expected by some analysts to be a playoff team this year. I personally didn’t see it, and didn’t expect Teddy Bridgewater to make that much of a difference. I will say they’ve certainly improved, but they just don’t have enough to compete. The Chiefs have had an up and down season. After shaking off some early season issues, and their defense finally clicking, the Chiefs went on a nice run that ended last week with a loss to Cincinnati. Denver has lost their last three games, and four of their last five. 10 points is a lot of points to cover against a divisional opponent on the road. At home, the Chiefs beat the Broncos by 13. So, the line has been adjusted by the typical home field three points. Against divisional opponents at home, the Broncos have lost to the Raiders by 10 and beat the Chargers. The Chiefs have something to play for, and so does Bridgewater, so there isn’t that significant of an edge. I’m going to play over 44.5. I lean towards the Broncos, but the Chiefs could try to win this in the first half and coast in the second half. They need to win for a shot at the #1 seed but they don’t need to win by 11.
Cowboys at Eagles
I don’t know that this game really matters to either team. Both are in the playoffs, and maybe if everything goes correctly, the Cowboys can get a home-field game. Aside from that, the Eagles are basically going to be right here and have to face likely the Rams or Bucs in the first game of the playoffs. So, we are trying to handicap a game with little or no motivation on either side? Not quite, this is still a divisional game. I’d expect the Cowboys to make sure health is a priority but they still have the potential to have a home game in the playoffs, which is huge. I’d think the Eagles would want to win on what will be the last home game of the season. I do like the first half much better than a full gameplay on this. If you can find it at -3 for the Cowboys, take it, but I’m going to play the -3.5 at +100 and hope that they come out in full force and build a lead and take off the second half.