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Week 11 is coming to an end with a game between the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I only assume that the NFL scheduler tries to get whatever team Brady is on to face the Giants so the announcers can talk about how they beat him twice in the Super Bowl. Let’s put this game on mute and watch for our bets.
We can start with the side. So far this season we know the Buccaneers would be favored or close to it in almost every game. They haven’t done a great job of covering those spreads though this season, running just a 3-6 record and winning most games by about 7 points. The Giants, a team that you’d expect to get a lot of points has covered about 56% of the time with a 5-4 record. On average, their games are a lot closer than you might assume. Tonight the line is 11. There is no question that the Buccaneers are the better team. And, aside from the game against the Cowboys, they have crushed their opponents when playing at home. The other opponents they’ve faced at home? The Bears, the Dolphins, and the Falcons. The Giants are closer to the three previously mentioned teams than they are the Cowboys. I’m going to lay the points with the Buccaneers at -114.
I would think the Giants can score some points, and we know Tampa Bay absolutely will. I just don’t know if the Giants will score enough to push the total over. If you average their scores together, you get about 50 points, which is just over the posted total of 49.5. I’m going to take the under on this because I think that the Giants, who are expected to reincorporate Saquan Barkley, will struggle to move the ball offensively. Once the Buccaneers get a big lead, they don’t really push the issue much more. Could there be a garbage time score that pushes the total over? Of course. I feel we are getting a few points here though. I’m taking the under at -105.
My last play I’m taking is Mike Evans to have a touchdown in the game. The Giants have allowed 16 passing touchdowns this season and Evans has the most on the Buccaneers team. In fact, he has more than double the total of the next closest receiver, Chris Godwin. Evans is someone Brady looks to often in the red zone. The juice on this one is fairly reasonable at -130. I don’t think the Giants have an answer for him either.