NFL Best Bets for MNF: Patriots-Bills

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Monday Night Football is upon us and we’ve got a nice matchup with the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. This is a big matchup not only for the division standings but the overall conference standings.

If the Patriots win, that will be seven games in a row and put them alone atop the AFC standings. Mac Jones is now the favorite to win the Rookie of the Year and has been just as good as he was in college. The defense is helping them win games, but looking back on the games, they’ve only lost one game by more than one score. My point is, this really is not a fluke, they’ve been in just about every game this season.

The Bills are on a bit of a slide. They are just 3-3 over their last six games and are not looking great at all. Even their three wins came against teams that weren’t exactly world-beaters – the Dolphins, the Jets, and the banged-up Saints squad on Thanksgiving. They need to find their magic against the Patriots though, Josh Allen hasn’t been nearly as reliable as he was during the first portion of the season.

Tonight, I’m going to take the Bills on the spread. They seem to play towards their level of opponent this season. The Patriots have been great, as I’ve already mentioned, but I think after the extended break and the home game, Josh Allen will be prepared for this one and be able to win the game. Maybe call it an irrational gut feeling, but I like the Bills tonight.

Statistically, these teams match up very well. Both are averaging just under 30 points per game and only allowing just over two touchdowns. The team in better form is no doubt the Patriots, but the Bills seem to have a way to step up for bigger games. I’m going to play the under on this as I expect their defense to show up. We know that Bill Belichick will be ready for this game and he can get their defense to take out the best players from the Bills. Under 41 points is very low, but I will play it at about a half-unit-sized bet.

The last bet I’m placing is on Damien Harris to score a touchdown any time and also the first touchdown. He is +850 for the first touchdown and +190 for any time. One of the best ways to attack the Bills is on the ground, so I’ll play those both.  

Written by David Troy

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