NFC Playoff Value Bets and Breakdown

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I will mention this in the AFC article too, but last season, I put out a play on Cincinnati and explained how they could win the AFC and head to the Super Bowl. By my explanation, you were essentially betting them at something like +600 to beat the Chiefs. It worked out and that’s the kind of thing I’m looking for here in this article. It isn’t going to always be plus money or even a wild shot that plays out, that’s just not realistic. But we are going to break down the bracket and how to play the NFC for the playoffs.

This can be a bit tricky here because teams are reseeded, so for example if the Seahawks pull off an upset, they would play the Eagles next round and the Vikings or Giants would get the winner of Cowboys vs. Buccaneers. Luckily for us, I don’t think there is much chance of Seattle pulling off an upset. So, that seems like a good place for us to start. The 49ers win their first game and advance.

Would you be shocked to see the Giants beat the Vikings? Personally, I wouldn’t. I wasn’t a Giants believer this year, but I also don’t make a habit of backing Kirk Cousins in many games. So consider that a toss-up for a second. The final game of this opening round is between the Cowboys and the Buccaneers. If you recall the first game of the season, the Buccaneers trounced the Cowboys, and that was before Dak Prescott got injured. I also want to mention that both teams went basically in opposite direction from there though – the Cowboys played pretty well the rest of the year and the Buccaneers were confounding and frustrating on their way to capturing a division that no one seemed to want.

Value bet that I think has a very unrealistic shot: Giants to win the NFC at +2500. Frankly, I don’t think they have the offense to do this, and I’m not sold on the defense being good enough to stop the 49ers or the Eagles. However, here is the path I’m looking at. They have a winnable game against the Vikings. They played them earlier this year and lost 27-24. If their defense can take care of business there, they likely face the Eagles in the next round. They played the Eagles twice this year both were losses, but one was last week when no one cared about the game. Jalen Hurts should be fine and in a better rhythm than last week, but I think a motivated Giants team could have a shot to win this one. Then you need to travel across the country and face the 49ers. Again, I don’t see this as anything that is realistic, but if you’re talking about a team with a path to the Super Bowl that is a “everything bounces the right way” path – I think the Giants at +2500 isn’t the worst option. I’d never put more than a quarter unit on it.

I was always a Peyton Manning guy, but I’m also not dumb enough to bet against Brady even in a crappy year. I am going to play Buccaneers vs. 49ers for the NFC Conference Final matchup at +900. I think they beat the Cowboys. Then they only need to beat the Eagles. So, you’re basically telling me that I am getting Tom Brady at +900 to beat the Eagles. Sign me up. I don’t trust the Cowboys at all, and definitely not on the road. I do trust that the 49ers will be in the Conference Finals and can even grab them vs. the Eagles at +200. I think this is a good way to play this matchup. If the Giants win their game, this Tampa/San Fran ticket will blow up though because that would be the matchup in the Divisional round instead after reseeding.

I am not going to grab the 49ers at +180 to make the Super Bowl. There isn’t enough value here. I think they are the best team in the NFC and playing well enough to pull this off. However, if you want to take someone, grab the Eagles. The Eagles are good, no question, and in reality, they might be the right “value” play because if they take on San Francisco at home you’re probably laying juice instead of getting them at plus money. This again is just a bit too low for me at +175.

How I’d play the NFC:

Buccaneers vs. 49ers exact conference final matchup +900

49ers vs. Eagles +200

Giants +2500 to make Super Bowl

I don’t think I’d put much more than 1.5u on all three of these bets combined.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024

Written by David Troy

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