Trey Lance is the “biggest risk” in the NFL draft, according to one draft prognosticator.
Never heard of Lance? It’s OK. He’s not a member of one of the football factories from a Power Five conference. Instead, he’s a quarterback at North Dakota State who stands 6-foot-4 and whose draft stock appears to be on the rise.
In fact, a few mocks have Lance going in the first round.
But not so fast, writes Sayre Bedinger of NFL Mocks.
“For a team considering drafting him, there is certainly risk involved when it comes to Lance’s sample size,” Bedinger opined. “And it’s not just a sample size issue from a selfish standpoint of not being able to see enough of him, but it’s valuable experience that Lance has unfortunately missed out on with this season being wiped away by COVID-19 for him and the rest of his Bison teammates.”
“Lance has just 17 games of experience and fair or not, that is something NFL clubs could hold against him in their evaluation,” he wrote. “It doesn’t make him a bad prospect, but it could mean that other players are much further along in their development based on their on-field experience.”
Most mocks have Lance going somewhere between Nos. 27 and 34 in the draft. For instance, the Sporting News currently has the Pittsburgh Steelers selecting Lance at No. 28 overall.
Is that too high? Well, the answer is we won’t know for a few years, not until Lance actually steps behind an NFL center and takes multiple snaps. But like everyone who plays at a smaller program, Lance could come with some risk. And hey, maybe some high reward, too.