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Hard to believe we are already launching into Week 7 of the NCAAF campaign. There are a few games tonight and tomorrow and we are looking to take some money home on each one of them so we can get a nice start to our weekend.
Navy at Memphis
Navy’s football team appears to be out at sea. Yea, that was a bad joke even for me, but it still was better than their performance for most of this season. Navy comes into the game at just 1-4 but I will say they seem to have improved over the last few weeks. Last week, they hung with SMU for almost the entire game. Two weeks ago, they beat a decent UCF team, and three weeks ago they hung with a solid Houston team. Navy seems to have fixed their offense but still struggles with defense. Memphis is just 3-3 on the season and they have been alarmingly consistent with allowing points. In their opener against Nicholls College where they allowed 17 points, since then, they’ve allowed at least 29 points. Play over 55.5 at -112 tonight.
Marshall at North Texas
Simply looking at statistics is always a fun way to start handicapping a game. For example with this, the stats actually lineup pretty well. Marshall is scoring 34 points per game, and North Texas is allowing 32 points a game. The average obviously comes to 33. Then the points allowed by Marshall is 22.8. North Texas’ offense is scoring 22.8 points per game. The difference between the points Marshall scores and the points North Texas allows is… 11. The spread for the game… 10.5. It isn’t always that simple, and that isn’t all that went into this analysis, but I do like Marshall at -10.5 at -114. I expect North Texas to lose this game, and in three of their four losses, they’ve lost by 13 or more points. Marshall should have no trouble on offense in this one.
San Diego State at San Jose State
I’ve been a fan of San Diego State all year. One of the better picks I had was them upsetting Utah at home. I don’t think they face much of a challenge in San Jose State. Led by running back Greg Bell, the Aztecs have had one game (the aforementioned Utah game) that has been within one score. They now have the opportunity for Bell to run wild as he faces a San Jose State team that is allowing 141.3 yards per game. For the Spartans, it will be difficult facing an Aztec defense that has allowed just 50 rushing yards per game. While they can surrender air yards, sophomore Nick Nash has been just okay in his two starts. He only completed 50% of his passes last week. I’m taking the Aztecs to cover the spread at -9.5 at -108.