We started our NCAAF week with a heartbreaker. The Navy and Memphis game had a total of 55.5 that we were on an over for… Going into the fourth quarter, 52 points were scored. The game ended with 52 points. Let’s bounce back with an over, under, side, and upset pick.
Michigan State at Indiana
Number 10 Michigan State comes to Indiana and looks to continue their undefeated season. The Spartans are already 3-0 in conference. The only close game they’ve had this season was a home game against Nebraska. Indiana has a 2-3 record, and if their win-loss trend continues they should upset Michigan State. I don’t think that will happen. I believe that the Spartans ground game, which is averaging 217.2 yards per game will dominate this one and lead them to cover the -4.5 spread at -106.
Rutgers at Northwestern
We stay with another Big 10 matchup in Northwestern and Rutgers. Neither one of these teams is having an exciting year, but they are both hard-nosed football teams. Both teams are averaging a combined total of 49 points per game. Northwestern really needs to make rush defense a point of emphasis to hold Rutgers down. Though Rutgers has played three straight ranked opponents, they’ve only been able to muster 13 points in each game. Northwestern has been more inconsistent offensively. I don’t have faith that either team will light up the scoreboard. Play under 45.5 at -115.
Toledo at Central Michigan
Ah, MACTION. If you follow the MAC conference and my picks, you know this is going to be an over. The total is currently posted at 52.5. Toledo has been pretty good defensively and only played in two games that have gone over that total. They were the first two games of the season. Central Michigan is far more accommodating when it comes to points allowed. They’ve played in four of their six games with the scoring getting over the 52.5 total. They’ve also scored 45 and 31 points in their two home games. If they can have any success throwing the ball against a good Toledo secondary, this game will go over. I’m betting it does.
Tulsa at South Florida
As for our upset game, I like South Florida at home to beat Tulsa. Neither one of these teams are good and that helps my cause. In a matchup of two teams that are beaten down I think anything can happen. Davis Brinn for Tulsa has thrown eight touchdowns on the season and also thrown eight interceptions. So, his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired. There is not much to be excited about with South Florida’s offense, but Tulsa is allowing 433 yards of offense to opponents, so they should be able to move the ball. South Florida has forced four interceptions on the year. If they can force one or more against Tulsa they should position themselves to win. Play them at +250