NCAAF Best Bets for Thursday, December 30, 2021

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We are now 5-1 over the last two days on our NCAAF games. With another slate of four today, we bring you some bets that we think can cash.

Tennessee vs. Purdue

There has been a lot of line movement in this game since the opening line. We’ve seen the total increase by more than a touchdown and the side has increased by about four points. I personally think the total might be getting too high so if you bet it early, you might have room for a middle here with under 64.5 points. Tennessee does play in a lot of higher-scoring games, so I’m not exactly advocating for taking the under. I am just saying the value is gone from the total. Instead, I do think Tennessee could win this game by 10+ points. Purdue has had some very impressive performances this year, but I’ll play the Vols -7 at -110.

Pittsburgh vs. Michigan State

Similar to the previous game we discussed, the line movement in this game may have taken away one of the angles to consider. This game dropped about 7 points in the total. In the last 10 games these teams have played in, eight of them have gone over the current total. I think the only way to play this game is the over now that it has dropped to 56. Pittsburgh should be able to have their way in the passing game against a Michigan State defense that struggles against the air game. But, keep in mind that Kenny Pickett has opted-out of the game. On the other side, Michigan State has shown they can score on almost everyone. I also like Pittsburgh to win this game. I’m fine if people prefer to take the 3 points, but I’d rather put a little on the moneyline at +122.

Wisconsin vs. Arizona State

This should be a pretty fun matchup to close out the day. I like Wisconsin’s defense and think that it might be a struggle for Arizona State to consistently score on the Badgers. For the Sun Devils to win, they will need to keep this a close game and probably punch in a late touchdown. The biggest question for this game is how will the rushing game of Arizona State attack a Wisconsin rushing defense that has allowed just 65 yards on the ground per game this season. I still feel like the under is the right play even though the total has dropped down a couple of points this week. Play under 41.5 at -110.

Written by David Troy

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