NCAAF Best Bets for Early Week 5 Games

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We get some early Week 5 College Football action with a fun matchup between Miami and Virginia today and a couple tomorrow. I’ve got a few plays on the games and want to share with the loyal Outkick readers.

Virginia at Miami

This game is a bit hard to handicap only because there are rumblings now that Miami quarterback, D’Eriq King, will play tonight. I’m going with that assumption, if he doesn’t feel free to wait until you get confirmation one way or another. King is talented, but is off to a rough start for this year, and so is the Miami program. They just barely beat Appalachian State at home. King coming back off an injury doesn’t make me very confident that they will have put everything they needed together. Virginia is a decent team, but they do struggle against the run, so Miami could capitalize there. Offensively, Virginia should be able to score, and so should Miami. I’m going to play this game as an over 61.5 at -105. I lean towards Virginia winning outright but will pass altogether.

Iowa at Maryland

It seems to me that every year there is a discussion that Iowa could make the playoff bracket, and then something happens and they fall down in the rankings. Could that be the case tonight? Maryland has looked strong to open the year with the exception of a close road game against Illinois. They are led by Taulia Tagovailoa who already has 10 touchdowns and just one interception on the season. Iowa, as usual, is led by their defensive prowess. The question in this game to me is if Iowa can get their ground game going (they should) and if Tagovailoa can outthink the Iowa defense. If the game is close, as the books are expecting, Maryland has the offensive capabilities to march downfield. I don’t know that Iowa does. However, I trust their defense too much and will play Iowa -3.5 at -102 (I’ve seen this fall to -3 at some shops, so keep an eye out).

Houston at Tulsa

Houston comes into the Tulsa matchup looking to remain in first place in the American Athletic Conference. I think that Houston has the better offensive unit and better defensive unit, so I’m a bit confused why they are not the favorite in this game. The biggest reason I can think of is that Tulsa has had a significantly harder schedule so far and might be the more tested team. This game is likely to come down to which team can force more turnovers. Both quarterbacks have been careless, throwing five interceptions each. I like the value that Houston offers on the game and will play them at +164.  

Written by David Troy

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