What a Final Four! Those games were both great in their own ways. Kansas was dominant basically from tip to buzzer against Villanova and performed so well that even when ‘nova made their runs, they were unable to get really close. Duke and UNC played a great game. Both teams should be proud, but at the end of the day UNC came out just a little more dominant. Tip of the cap to them, and a farewell to Coach K.
Tonight, we have Kansas taking on North Carolina. Two very storied NCAA franchises both looking to stand atop the mountain after years of missing out. At this point, I feel like I’d be an idiot to not take the points with North Carolina because they just keep proving me wrong. But, we are talking about two baskets here. I really don’t think they win this game, but one of Kansas’s best attributes has been their team rebounding. That will be a challenge in this game against Armando Bacot. He averages six more rebounds per game than the leading Kansas player. I still think Kansas has enough to get it done.
North Carolina is playing with house money right now. They’ve gone farther than anyone outside of Chapel Hill expected them to go. If they lose, it is still a great story. But, I’m not taking the Tar Heels. I’m taking Kansas -4. Kansas has been absolutely dominant against every team they’ve faced. UNC probably has better scoring guards than Villanova, but Kansas made Villanova’s defense look weak, and I personally thought that was one of their better traits. Will Kansas come out and shoot lights out from three to start the game and never look back? Probably not. North Carolina doesn’t seem to ever really give up. However, when Kansas is up by three or four late in the game and they start to get fouled, I expect them to cover the spread. Kansas -4.
I don’t like betting unders in basketball much unless there is real value. I think we are getting pretty close to the number now that it has dropped. I will lay off of it, but wouldn’t be surprised to see a game end in the 140’s. As the game gets tighter late, the defense will play a big factor (one of the main reasons I like Kansas here) and I’d expect points to be hard to come by.
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