NBA's Monday Gambling Trifecta Includes A Diversified Portfolio
It took me a minute to find NBA games worth betting in this terrible card Monday. In order to wring a profit out of the NBA Monday, I got to the window the total for Bulls-76ers, a side in Kings-Jazz, and a player prop in Warriors-Rockets.
(BUYER BEWARE: We are in the NBA’s “load management” and “tanking” eras. It's best to wait until the final injury reports come out before placing a bet).
Chicago Bulls (33-37) at Philadelphia 76ers (48-22), 7 p.m. ET
Bulls-Sixers are 1-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this season. The Over has cashed in both meetings and the Over has cashed in four of the past five Bulls-Sixers matchups.
Over the past two weeks, the 76ers have the best non-garbage time offensive rating in the NBA and the Bulls are 4th, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Philadelphia's hot offensive stretch should continue. Chicago is 22nd in defensive wide-open 3-point attempt rate allowed over the last seven games.
James Harden shoots over Bulls SG Coby White at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. (Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
The Sixers are connecting on an NBA-high 46.8% from behind the arc on wide-open attempts over that span. Also, both teams' best defensive players are "questionable" to play Monday.
Chicago could be without PG Alex Caruso and Philly may be sans PG P.J. Tucker. Caruso is key for the Bulls in defending James Harden and Tucker would be tasked with slowing down DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine.
NBA Best Bet #1: OVER 225 in Bulls-76ers (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to 226
Odds for the OVER in Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Sacramento Kings (43-27) at Utah Jazz (34-36), 9 p.m. ET
The Jazz have been phenomenal this season as home underdogs: 8-2 SU (+5.5 SU margin) 9-1 ATS (+8.7 ATS margin). Utah covered as +3.5 'dogs in a 126-125 home loss to the Kings on Dec. 30.
But, Sacramento can see light at the end of the tunnel. The Kings are 2nd in the West and 5.5 games atop the Pacific Division. If they can play well over the next 10 days, Sacramento will clinch its division.
Kings PG De'Aaron Fox james the ball vs. Jazz at Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City. (Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images)
Both teams are great offensively and trash defensively. However, the Kings are closer to full strength and Jazz are missing All-Star Lauri Markkanen and SG Jordan Clarkson.
In the 1st two Kings-Jazz meetings this season, Markkanen averaged 32.0 points per game (PPG) on 56.4% shooting and Clarkson put up 24.5 PPG on 58.6% shooting (41.7% from behind the arc).
Also, Sactown beats who its supposed to beat. The Kings are 14-3 SU and 12-5 ATS as road favorites this season and have covered seven straight road games. Their only loss over the past seven games was to the red-hot Bucks.
NBA Best Bet #2: Kings -6 (-115) at DraftKings, up to -6.5
The Sacramento Kings' odds at the Utah Jazz from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, March 20th at 2 p.m. ET.
Warriors PF Draymond Green UNDER 9.5 points vs. Houston Rockets
Green has played in two of the three Warriors-Rockets meetings this season. In those games, Green scored 3 and 4 points on a combined 3-for-10 shooting.
These Warriors-Rockets meetings have a different meaning since Harden left Houston. Since 2020, Green has scored 9 or fewer points in six of the past seven Warriors-Rockets games.
Draymond Green looks for a pass while defended by Rockets PF Jabari Smith Jr. at Chase Center in San Francisco. (Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images)
Draymond has scored single digits in 35 of his 63 games in 2022-23. Houston allows the fewest PPG to opposing power forwards at 19.7 PPG.
The Warriors have lost three consecutive road games entering Monday. They are 27th in defensive rebounding rate and dead-last in defensive rating over that span.
My read is Draymond will focus his energy on defense and rebounding and leave the scoring to Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole.
NBA Best Bet #3: Warriors Draymond Green UNDER 9.5 points (-135) at DraftKings
Odds for Golden State Warriors PF Draymond Green's point prop vs. the Houston Rockets from DraftKings Sportsbook.