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The folks at FanDuel are once again offering us some additional incentive to watch the NBA game tonight on TNT. The offer is the same as it has been before – bet a 3+ leg Same Game Parlay for $10 and get the money back if it loses. Risk-free? Sign me up. Let’s put something together.
The big question for tonight is how many points does Joel Embiid score? He’s been on an absolute tear lately, scoring 30 or more points in 14 of his last 15 games. Can he reach that total again tonight against an improved, but still not great Lakers defense? I think so. Anthony Davis is fine, but I think Embiid gets to the free-throw line enough to make a difference in the point totals. Over the last 15 games, he’s had double-digit free throws attempted in 12 of them. That doesn’t mean he’s always converting, but he is shooting about 82% on the season. It will eventually end, but I think the 76ers will need all the points Embiid can come up with tonight. I’ll start with the over 33.5 points at -116.
Furkan Korkmaz hasn’t been as exciting as he was during the preseason where he looked like a diamond in the rough for the 76ers. However, he has been a decent role player and has stepped into a larger role over the season with injuries and covid-related absences. Tonight, he should be able to get over the 1.5 threes he is sitting at for a line. I’ll take that as the Lakers have given up about three per game to opposing shooting guards.
Another area of opportunity for the 76ers to exploit is their point guard, Tyrese Maxey, hitting over 1.5 threes. He’s done this in three of his last four games, and five of his last eight games. The Lakers allow close to three made to opposing point guards per game as well. We aren’t asking much from Maxey, on the season he is averaging 1.7 threes per game at home.
I’m going to add another couple of plays in this one as well. After all, if it misses, we get our money back, so let’s go big or go home. Russell Westbrook has been just about as dissected as Ben Simmons this year. He is a terrible fit for the Lakers and never was going to work out. But, either way, he is here. I think tonight he gets close to a triple-double, and that means he will get 8+ assists. Having played for the Wizards last year, he might have an edge in breaking down the 76ers defense. He has gone over the total in just 2 of his last 11 games, but there is a good opportunity here.
Finally, I’m adding Malik Monk into the mix. He’s been inconsistent at best in the past 10 or so games, but in the first game with Anthony Davis back, he took 12 three-point attempts and hit 6 of them. Philadelphia is allowing almost three per game to opposing shooting guards. I don’t expect Avery Bradley to get all of these and this will be a game where Matisse Thybulle is on LeBron. Role-players will need to do more in this one.
- Embiid over 33.5 points
- Korkmaz over 1.5 threes
- Maxey over 1.5 threes
- Monk over 1.5 threes
- Westbrook over 7.5 assists
Total odds: +1643 where a $10 bet pays $164.30 if we win and $10 if we lose. Feel like going bigger? Sure! Add LeBron to hit the first shot of the game and your odds increase to +10452.