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My St. Patrick’s Day in the NBA was a dumpster-fire after cashing on both NBA bets Thursday. The 0-3 sweep Friday isn’t going to scare me off of losing (but hopefully winning) money Saturday.
As a Southern Californian resident, I hate the Bay Area. That said, their basketball teams are fun to watch. I’m using my NBA betting bankroll Saturday on the Kings-Wizards and Warriors-Grizzlies matchups.
(BUYER BEWARE: We are in the NBA’s “load management” and “tanking” eras. It’s best to wait until the final injury reports come out before placing a bet).
Sacramento Kings (42-27) at Washington Wizards (32-38), 8 p.m. ET
Let’s hit the UNDER 235 (-105) because both teams will be missing key offensive contributors, both defenses have been closing out on 3-point shooters recently, and there is suspicious line movement.
Kings SG Kevin Huerter and Wizards big Kristaps Porzingis have been ruled out for Saturday’s meeting. Huerter and Porzingis space the floor for both teams because they are elite 3-point shooters.
Per CleaningTheGlass.com, Huerter leads Sacramento in on/off non-garbage time offensive rating and Porzingis is 2nd on D.C. in on/off non-garbage time offensive rating.
Also, over the past five games, the Kings are 4th in defensive wide-open 3-point-attempt rate allowed and the Wizards are 5th. “Wide-open 3s” happen when the shooter has at least six feet of distance from the nearest defender.
DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting via VSIN that nearly 90% of the action is on the OVER 235 (-115). This game opened with a 236.5-point total and is heading south despite one-way action headed north.
Finally, nine of the past 11 Kings-Wizards meetings have gone Under the total including earlier this season. Washington beat Sacramento 125-111 on Dec. 23, which fell just short of the 239-point total.
NBA Best Bet #1: UNDER 235 in Kings-Wizards (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Golden State Warriors (36-35) at Memphis Grizzlies (42-27), 8 p.m. ET
I feel like I’m putting on clown makeup like that Joaquin Phoenix-The Joker GIF by giving out the Warriors on the road again. I’ve stepped in s*** several times this season making this bet.
In fact, I backed the Dubs to beat the Grizzlies in Memphis earlier this month. Memphis boat-raced Golden State 131-110 on March 9.
The Warriors had Steph Curry and the Grizzlies were missing both PG Ja Morant and C Steven Adams. I cannot help myself and I’m going to fall for this trap again.
Golden State is tied with the Pistons for the third-fewest road victories this season (seven). Also, the Warriors are 0-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven visits to Memphis.
But, I watched the previous Warriors-Grizzlies game and Memphis went an unsustainable 18-for-40 from behind the arc. Golden State did a good job closing out on shooters and Memphis just nailed everything.
Furthermore, over their last five games, the Grizzlies are tied for the 2nd-worst defensive wide-open 3PAr allowed. If you could guarantee me this continues, I’d make my biggest bet of the season.
The Warriors have lost two consecutive games entering Saturday including Friday 127-119 at the Hawks. Motivation will be there for the Dubs considering their beef with the Grizzlies and they are trying to avoid the play-in.
NBA Best Bet #2: Warriors moneyline (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook
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