NBA Best Bet Trifecta For Wednesday, November 30

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The NBA is loading up with a stacked 13-game Wednesday slate because there’s only one game scheduled for Thursday. Whatever. I guess I’ll do my own “load management” with the NBA.

That said, the looks I have Wednesday are in the 76ers-Cavaliers, Grizzlies-Timberwolves, and Clippers-Jazz matchups. The games are broken down in order of my favorite to least favorite bets.

Philadelphia 76ers (12-9) at Cleveland Cavaliers (13-8)

The numbers say these two teams are fairly equal but Cleveland’s injury woes are more detrimental. Philadelphia is missing guards James Harden and Tyrese Maxey but both have a negative non-garbage time on/off net rating (nRTG), per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Sixers PG Shake Milton has stepped up in Harden and Maxey’s absence. Milton is averaging 23.2 points per game (PPG) on 69.0% true shooting (.571/.538/.955) with 6.3 rebounds and 6.7 assists in his six games as a starter.

Philly big Joel Embiid missed four games with a foot sprain from Nov. 22-27 and SF Tobias Harris has balled out since. Harris is averaging 23.0 PPG on 52.1% shooting with 7.2 rebounds in his last five games.

Philadelphia 76ers SF Tobias Harris and C Joel Embiid high-five during the 4th quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland, Ohio.
Philadelphia 76ers SF Tobias Harris and C Joel Embiid high-five during the 4th quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland, Ohio. (Jason Miller/Getty Images)

On the other hand, the Cavs will be without two bigs — Kevin Love and Jarrett Allen — who are second and third for Cleveland in non-garbage time on/off net rating nRTG.

Love could occupy Sixers defensive forward P.J. Tucker‘s attention and Allen has the length to at least make 76ers C Joel Embiid work. Without Allen on the floor, Embiid is going to dominate the paint Wednesday.

Also, I’ve always thought Cavs SG Donovan Mitchell is overrated. Mitchell’s -5.0 non-garbage time on/off nRTG grades in the 30th percentile among combo guards, according to CTG.

Tucker is freed up to help defend Mitchell since Cleveland is missing two skilled bigs. Plus Philly’s defense allows 9.7 fewer points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time when Milton is on the floor.

Finally, the 76ers are 14-9 against the spread (ATS) as underdogs of +4 or less since the start of last season and 8-5 ATS as road underdogs of +4 or less with a +6.0 ATS margin.

NBA Best Bet #1: 76ers +3.5 (-110) and ‘sprinkle’ on the +140 ML at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Philadelphia 76ers' odds at the Cleveland Cavaliers from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, November 30th at 6:15 a.m. ET.
The Philadelphia 76ers’ odds at the Cleveland Cavaliers from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, November 30th at 6:15 a.m. ET.

Memphis Grizzlies (12-8) at Minnesota Timberwolves (10-11)

Since I cannot reverse engineer the Grizzlies-Timberwolves line movement, I’ll go down swinging with Memphis in this spot. Minnesota opened as a 4-point underdog and has been lowered down to the current spread (+2.5).

Per Pregame.com, more than 60% of the money in the consensus market is on the T-Wolves. I get that the injury of Minnesota big Karl-Anthony Towns doesn’t affect the spread much. But, the T-Wolves’ three leaders in on/off nRTG, per CTG, are also listed on their injury report.

On top of that …

This is a better spot for the Grizzlies.

They last played Sunday and Memphis is 16-7-1 ATS with a +4.4 ATS margin when playing with 2-3 days of rest since the beginning of last season. The Grizzlies have covered in seven of their last 10 visits to Minnesota.

Furthermore, Memphis is 14-6 ATS as road favorites vs. teams with a losing record with a +4.2 ATS margin. The Timberwolves are 3-6 ATS at home this season with a -6.9 ATS margin.

Grizzlies PG Ja Morant dribbles the ball while Timberwolves SF Anthony Edwards defends him in the 4th quarter during Game 6 of the Western Conference First Round at Target Center in Minneapolis.
Grizzlies PG Ja Morant dribbles the ball while Timberwolves SF Anthony Edwards defends him. (David Berding/Getty Images)

Finally, the Grizzlies are seventh in non-garbage time nRTG, per CTG, and the T-Wolves struggle against tough teams. Minnesota is 2-5 straight up (SU) vs. top-10 teams with a -8.0 non-garbage time nRTG (ranked 20th) and a -7.2 ATS margin (29th).

Sometimes you have to be willing to lose bets in this racket. If the Timberwolves beat me sans KAT then I’ll tip my hat to them.

NBA Best Bet #2: Grizzlies -2.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -3.5

The Memphis Grizzlies' odds at the Minnesota Timberwolves from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, November 30th at 1:30 p.m. ET.
The Memphis Grizzlies’ odds at the Minnesota Timberwolves from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, November 30th at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Los Angeles Clippers (13-9) at Utah Jazz (12-11)

There’s no way the Jazz with a rookie head coach should be a 6.5-point favorite vs. a Clippers team that is this good defensively. Even if LA is missing its two All-Stars Paul George and Kawhi Leonard.

The Clippers rank second in non-garbage time defensive rating, third in defensive effective field goal shooting, and first in defensive FT/FGA rate, according to CTG.

Also, I figured the Clippers would be the public play but roughly 90% of the action in the consensus market is on the Jazz at the time of writing, per Pregame.com.

LA Clippers wing Norman Powell dribbles against the Utah Jazz at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles.
LA Clippers wing Norman Powell dribbles against the Utah Jazz at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles. (Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images)

LA played last night (Tuesday) and beat the Portland Trail Blazers 118-112 in an intense game. The public fades the Clippers in these spots because their best players frequently sit the second of back-to-backs (B2B).

But, since 2020, LA is 10-7 SU with a +5.8 margin of victory and 11-6 ATS with a +5.3 ATS margin on the road in the second of a B2B.

Lastly, Utah is a team you want to back as an underdog and fade as a favorite. The Jazz are 12-4 ATS as underdogs with a +7.0 ATS margin and just 1-6 ATS with a -6.7 ATS margin as favorites.

NBA Best Bet #3: Clippers +6.5 (-110) and ‘sprinkle’ on the +215 ML at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Los Angeles Clippers' odds at the Utah Jazz from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, November 30th at 1:45 p.m. ET.
The Los Angeles Clippers’ odds at the Utah Jazz from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, November 30th at 1:45 p.m. ET.

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Written by Geoff Clark

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