NBA Best Bet Daily Double For Saturday, December 3
I know, I know, it's conference championship weekend in college football and the NFL's Week 13 slate is insane, who cares about the NBA? But, maybe I'll need to make some NBA money to offset football losses.
Or, glass-half-full, I can add to my NFL bankroll with NBA winnings. Either way, read below for analysis and best bets in the Rockets-Warriors and Trail Blazers-Jazz games.
Houston Rockets (6-16) at Golden State Warriors (12-11)
Both teams are playing good ball recently and are in the second of a back-to-back (B2B). Golden State won and covered last night (Friday) at home in a 119-111 win over the Bulls. Houston upset the Suns in Phoenix 122-121 as 11.5-point 'dogs Friday.
The Warriors are 5-2 straight up (SU) with a +4.0 non-garbage time net rating (nRTG) over the past two weeks, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). The Rockets are 3-3 SU with a -2.4 adjusted nRTG over that span but 4-2 ATS with a +5.0 ATS margin (ranked fifth).
Obviously, Golden State's trendline is more interesting and reliable. However, Houston is getting nearly 10 points, money in the betting market is flooding in on the Warriors, and ...
The Rockets are going to be more up for this game
The Warriors are the defending NBA champion and will get everyone's best shot. Especially this young, plucky Rockets squad. Also, there's an outside chance the Warriors either sit or reduce minutes for their stars in the second of a B2B.
Rockets guards Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green get to face the Splash Brothers and Houston's No. 3 overall pick, PF Jabari Smith Jr., takes on Draymond Green.
Houston's young core played in Atlanta on Nov. 25 and got into some beef with Hawks guards Dejounte Murray and Trae Young. Here's how that played out:
Not only are the Rockets young, brash, and chippy but they play aggressively too. Houston is second in adjusted offensive rebounding rate and third in adjusted offensive FT/FGA rate, per CTG. These are areas Golden State struggles in.
The Warriors are 28th in adjusted defensive FT/FGA rate and 29th in adjusted offensive FT/FGA rate. Golden State is 22nd in adjusted defensive rebounding rate and 21st in second-chance points allowed per game.
Finally, it's a better spot for the Rockets who are 4-1 ATS in the last five games on no rest and 6-2 ATS after their last eight wins. The Warriors are 3-8 ATS after a win this season with a -8.5 ATS margin.
Word for the wise: Wait until closer to tip-off to get a better number on Houston since the market is backing Golden State. But, I'll lock in ...
NBA Best Bet #1: Rockets +9.5 (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +9
The Houston Rockets' odds at the Golden State Warriors from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, December 3rd at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Portland Trail Blazers (11-11) at Utah Jazz (14-11)
The Jazz are only -4 at the time of writing and that feels suspiciously low. They were -7.5 at home vs. the Clippers Wednesday, a day after LA beat the Trail Blazers 118-112 in Portland.
Utah waxed the Pacers Friday 139-119 as a 4-point home favorite, and the Trail Blazers got crushed 128-109 by the Lakers Wednesday.
Both the Pacers and Clippers have a better adjusted nRTG than Portland. Also, the Jazz beat the Trail Blazers 118-113 on Nov. 19 in Portland as 4.5-point 'dogs.
The first Jazz-Trail Blazers meeting was Damian Lillard's last game before being sidelined with an injury. Portland is down another starter as well in SF Josh Hart who is "doubtful" to play. Yet Utah is only -4?!
But, Lillard shot 2-for-14 on Nov. 19 vs. the Jazz and was clearly compromised by injury. When Lillard isn't scoring he's a detriment to the team. Trail Blazers playing through big Jusuf Nurkic and PG Anfernee Simons might not be a bad thing.
Trail Blazers' Anfernee Simons drives to the basket against the Jazz at the Moda Center Arena in Portland, Oregon. (Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images)
The Jazz have a weak frontcourt and a terrible defensive rating. The Trail Blazers are 6-1 SU with a +8.2 adjusted nRTG vs. teams in the top 10 of adjusted nRTG and the third-best ATS margin in those spots (+7.7), per CTG.
Lastly, money is pouring in on Utah in the betting market, providing a "contrarian" angle for Portland. The public apparently thinks the Jazz's spread is cheap too. The sportsbooks will be rooting for the Trail Blazers.
(This is another scenario where I'd recommend waiting until closer to tip-off before locking in a bet since a majority of the market is betting on Utah).
NBA Best Bet #2: Trail Blazers +4 (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +3.5
The Portland Trail Blazers' odds at the Utah Jazz from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, December 3rd at 12:50 p.m. ET.