National Title by the Odds

We all know future odds move throughout the course of a sports season.  However volatility like the betting markets saw with Auburn this year is unlike anything I can remember.  Sit back and marvel at the roller coaster ride that has been the future price on War Eagle from when the oddsmakers hung them at 1000-1 back on January 8, 2013.

The LVH sportsbook in Las Vegas is known for having some of the most competitive future prices in the entire city.  They opened their college football market on January 8, 2013 and all prices contained within the article are courtesy of their book.  At the date listed here were the prices available on tonight’s national championship combatants:

Jan 8, 2013: FSU 40-1 & Auburn 1000-1

For the sake of comparison and perspective here were the prices on other teams we all expected to be in the national title: Alabama 5-2, Oregon 5-1, Ohio St 6-1, Georgia 12-1, and Texas A&M 12-1

June 24, 2013: FSU 25-1 & Auburn 500-1

Spring practice came and went with buzz about Jameis Winston’s ability starting to stir FSU bettors into action.  The move on FSU isn’t surprising nor is the move on Auburn given a fervent fan base and blind optimism surrounding their new coach.  I know you’re probably thinking 1000 cut to 500 is a big move but all it takes is a few casual bettors plunking down 20 dollar bets for books to adjust a few months before the season starts to limit some potential liability.

August 19, 2013: FSU 20-1 & Auburn 300-1

Both prices kept their dowward trajectory with bettors still intrigued by both team’s prospects.  Buzz around Jameis officially reached a crescendo with sharp bettors grabbing what they see as the current peak for what the market will offer on FSU to win the national title.

September 23, 2013: FSU 12-1 & Auburn 9,999-1

The dream is over for Auburn national championship ticket holders.  Done in by a trip to Death Valley Auburn suffers their first loss of the season (but did cover) and oddsmakers adjust the price significantly given the tough road that lies ahead. Quietly FSU has 3 resounding wins over Pittsburgh, Nevada, & Bethune Cookman and the offense hums like a well oiled machine.

October 21, 2013: FSU 3-1 & Auburn 60-1

Well well well, our questions about Florida State are answered after an annihilation of Clemson on the road in Death Valley.  Sharp bettors couldn’t get enough of the Seminoles in the game because the price opened FSU -2.5 and surged as high as 6 before kickoff.  Auburn on the other hand has rebounded from the loss to LSU with wins at home against Ole Miss but more impressively an outright victory against Johnny Football in College Station as a double digit underdog.  War Eagle is no longer off the Vegas radar as far as their potential ceiling but clearly they’ll need some help to get to Pasadena.

November 18, 2013: FSU 8-5 & Auburn 60-1

Hope springs eternal!!! Auburn is alive for the Crystal Ball after an improbable meltdown against Georgia turns into late game heroics and a 43-38 win against the Dogs.  There’s no change required in Auburn’s future price however because Ohio St and Alabama still seem destined to finish the year undefeated meaning both need to lose before Auburn can even sniff a shot at the title.

December 2, 2013: FSU 1-1 & Auburn 5-1

The kick 6 gives Auburn life yet again. Tigers are now a SEC championship game win and an Ohio St Big Ten title game loss away from getting a chance to play for the national title.  On the Florida St side there is no suspense, FSU opens nearly a 4 TD favorite against Duke and simply awaits their opponent for the big game.

National Title: FSU Opens -8, Current -10.5.

Sharp money has made the Seminoles their side but will they hold up against the ground attack from Auburn tonight? See who Clay Travis and I picked for the big game

 

Written by Clay Travis

OutKick founder, host and author. He's presently banned from appearing on both CNN and ESPN because he’s too honest for both.