MVP Betting Watch: Time to Hedge?

If you recall in the preseason, I told you to take Josh Allen for MVP. I had some other smaller plays and none of them look like they are all that promising at this point. Unfortunately for us, Josh Allen also doesn't look promising and in fact looks worse because he is now +1400 instead of +700 to win the award. So, do we need to hedge? No, not really. But, should we at least look at it? Yes.

The current favorite on DraftKings is Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes sits with a +125 line on him and I can't really put up a good argument against him. However, I will try. Here's four players:

Player A - 3,808 yards passing, 30 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 283 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns.
Player B - 2,940 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 609 rushing yards, and nine rushing touchdowns.
Player C - 3,406 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 589 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns.
Player D - 3,446 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 224 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns.

Maybe you've already figured out who is who for this, but if you look at the list, Player C, to me, is the average of the other three put together. Only one of those players has their team with a double-digit win total and after this week, three of the four will probably be there. So, Player A is Mahomes, leading the league in touchdowns and passing yards. That is somewhat of a surprise considering he has Travis Kelce and a bunch of cast-offs that he is throwing the ball to. He should end up with 5,000 yards passing for the year Player C and Player D getting to 5,000 yards isn't unrealistic, but it isn't as likely either. Mahomes has done the least amount of work on the ground, but he's killing it through the air. You could also argue he has the worst of the four teams in this group, yet the Chiefs sit at 9-3.

Player B is Jalen Hurts, the second favorite for MVP currently. Is he worth betting now? Absolutely not. I don't think he wins the award, but he might deserve it depending where he ends up. Few players get as many rushing and passing yards as he will. He will likely end up with about 4,000 passing yards, 1,000 rushing yards, and less than 30 passing touchdowns. Sure, he might have 15 rushing touchdowns, but he was so hot to start the year and has cooled off a bit so his stock might be flat instead of rising.

Player C is Josh Allen. I'm not burning my +700 ticket yet, but I'd probably be happier to take a shot on him now at +1400. He started hot and was the unanimous MVP choice for the first few weeks. Then he started getting sloppy, the Bills looked vulnerable, and suddenly he has fallen down the charts. He does have too many interceptions but he is one of four quarterbacks (Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson) that are in the top 30 for rushing yards. He is just 15 yards behind his running back to be with Fields and Jackson as the player that leads his team in rushing and passing yards. If the Bills get back to the early season dominance, it will be due to him. If they grab the #1 seed, it will be due to him. There is still a chance and still value here. If you don't have a ticket on him, pick it up now at 14:1.

Finally, Player D is Joe Burrow who my buddy Geoff Clark gave out preseason. Burrow looks good and he too still has some value at +600, but I'm not sure how he has more value than Allen. The Bills have more wins (and will likely win the division whereas the Bengals could still lose it to Baltimore), and Allen has more interceptions but more rushing yards, and virtually the same amount of passing yards. So Burrow, somehow is listed at +600 but Allen is +1400? How does that make any sense. If the book is telling us those two guys who are very statistically similar are that far apart wouldn't it make sense to grab Allen?

This will come down to how these four players finish out the year. Hurts will need to put up numbers like Lamar Jackson did. Mahomes likely needs to get 50 touchdowns and 5,000 yards to lock it up - both are doable for the guy and I won't say anything is impossible with him, but 20 more touchdowns in five games is a lot to ask. So, that leaves Burrow and Allen. If the Bills win out and finish 14-3, Allen gets to say 40 touchdowns and 5,000 yards with maybe one more interception and a couple more rushing touchdowns and 1,000 yards it is his. That's a lot to ask, no doubt about it. However, I do think it is a realistic possibility. As far as Burrow, he probably has the same goals as Allen but won't get the rushing yards, and I don't think the Bengals can win out (especially considering these two face off January 2nd).

The MVP race may come down to that Bills vs. Bengals game. Again, if I don't have any Allen MVP stock, he is absolutely worth it at +1400. Mahomes has the best path, but that doesn't mean it is locked up by any means. All it will take is one bad game to open up the doors.

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