Musgrove Has Edge Over Suarez in Game 3

Padres vs. Phillies, Game 3, 7:37 ET

If you’re looking for a lock on this game, I would say to tail with caution. It isn’t that I don’t like my bet for this game, it is that I haven’t gotten either of the first two games’ plays correct. The Yankees vs. Astros series? Nailed both of those games so far and my future on it is looking perfect. Let’s try and turn around the plays in this series.

Joe Musgrove is taking the ball in a series that is tied 1-1. This might be a great spot for Musgrove as he has been pitching great lately and is clearly the better pitcher. On the season, Musgrove has a sub-3 ERA and doesn’t have any concerning drastic split. Most of the year, Musgrove was awesome. There were some really tough starts and one of them came against the Phillies. At home in June, Musgrove went six innings and allowed six earned runs. That was the first start of the season that Musgrove really struggled. Since October started he has been really strong though. This month, he has gone 19 innings and allowed just nine hits and two earned runs. He’s been really good in both of his postseason starts.

The Phillies are having Ranger Suarez go in one of the biggest games of their season. Suarez hasn’t been bad this year, but he has been worse at home. For the season, Suarez has a 3.65 ERA, but at home, it inflates a bit to a 4.27 ERA. He was successful enough in his only start that he’s had this postseason. He faced the Braves in the series opener and went just 3.1 innings and allowed three hits and one earned run, a solo homer. It did take him 86 pitches to get through those innings as he walked five batters. That’s a dangerous way to win a playoff game. One encouraging sign for the Phillies is that Suarez had a great start against the Padres. It was a road start, but he went 7.1 innings and allowed just two earned runs.

I’m taking the Padres through five innings in this one. I expect the house to be rocking for the Phillies as they return home with a chance to keep going in the playoffs, but they don’t have the better pitcher here. Musgrove has been too good and I’m getting the same price on him through five innings as I am for the full game. I expect Suarez to be on a short leash as well, and think the Padres win this game so I’ll put a sprinkle play on the Padres first five moneyline and full game at +155.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024

Written by David Troy

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