David Troy
Videos by OutKick
Padres vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 ET
I’ll be the first person to raise my hand about a few teams that I was wrong about this season. And, by a few, I mean there are quite a few: The White Sox, Cardinals, Reds, Marlins, Yankees, Rangers and Padres all make my list. I was correct about a bunch too, so before you just think I am a bad ‘capper, I want you to know I said to look out for the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Phillies (which may not be much of a stretch), and a few others. Tonight though, we take a look into the matchup between two of the aforementioned squads, the Padres and the Diamondbacks.
I feel like I’ve written this sentence twenty times this season: The Padres have all the talent in the world and somehow cannot be a winning team. I like the way the team is put together – on paper there is literally no weakness. They have pitching, they have all the hitting you could want, and they even have a good bullpen. Their fielding is even solid. Somehow they have struggled pretty much all season long. Could they make the playoffs? Of course. Will they? I kind of doubt it. If they do will I bet on them to win the World Series? I can’t say I wouldn’t. You have three plus pitchers on the team and hitters that are both powerful and good enough contact hitters. Tonight, they have one of those plus pitchers on the hill in Blake Snell. He had to be pissed that July ended because he put together a spectacular one. Put it this way, in his one August start, he allowed three earned runs over five innings. He allowed fewer earned runs in 32 innings during July. That isn’t a typo, he allowed just two earned runs in July over six starts spanning 32 innings. Now, he did allow 48 hits/walks in that stretch which is an absurd amount for only two earned runs, but he struck people out when needed. He has been phenomenal against the Diamondbacks in his career, holding them to just 14 hits in 104 at-bats against him.
The Diamondbacks have to wish the first half of the season was still going on. They were 12 games above .500 before the All-Star Break and in first place within the division. They are currently below .500 now. In 23 games during the second half of the season, they are 5-18. Nothing is going right for this team. They are losing at home and on the road, and currently have lost eight straight games. They are 1-9 over their last 10 contests. Sure, they can turn it around, but time is running out, and more importantly, the Giants and Dodgers are running away from them. They have Ryne Nelson taking the ball for them tonight and that is not a good sign as he has been awful at home this season. Nelson has an 8.01 ERA in home starts this year. He also is coming off of a start where he allowed six earned runs in just three innings. He has faced San Diego twice this season and allowed eight earned runs over 10 innings. The worse of the two starts against the Padres was the one at home as well.
This one is a clear one for me and one I would love to put multiple units on, but I’ll be a bit conservative and play it two ways. I’m taking the Padres on the run line as Snell is a vastly superior pitcher to Nelson. The other way I’ll play this is the Diamdondbacks team total under 3.5 if I can get it. If it is 2.5 I won’t touch it, I’ll do a moneyline parlay of them through five then full game. The Padres have burned me multiple times this season, but this is one they should be able to handle easily.
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