Monday Night Football: Packers-Lions Best Bets

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Aaron Rodgers is going to go in full “screw you” mode tonight. The Packers are getting an opportunity for a revenge game against the lowly Lions of Detroit. Rodgers comes off a game that is potentially the worst of his illustrious career. Rodgers threw for less than 150 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. The first game against the Lions this season, the Lions defense allowed 311 passing yards and two touchdowns. I could easily see Rodgers having that type of game.

For the Lions, it is another chance for Jared Goff to make connections with his team and try to manage the game. Goff is not used to not having enough weapons on offense – he came from the plethora of them in Los Angeles. So far, the two-headed rushing monster of D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams look very sharp and like they could be prominent figures in the offensive scheme for the Lions. One thing that stands out to me about their first game was that Goff threw 24 pass attempts to his running back corps. That to me seems like he is either learning the playbook, or not comfortable with the receivers or offensive line. He is looking to dump the ball off more and take the short yardage. The game they played against San Francisco was not as close as the final score indicates, but they did put together a nice comeback.

Tonight, the line on the game is -11.5. Now, that line isn’t a “normal” score for a football game because you’d be looking for combinations of seven and three points. This is putting the game as a two or three-score difference. I think the Packers should cover this game, but I also would not be shocked to see the Lions get a backdoor cover on the game. Something like them being down 14 with a couple of minutes to go and they kick a meaningless field goal. So, ultimately, I’ll pass on the side for this game, but I do lean towards the Packers covering.

Neither defense will shine tonight. The Packers absolutely should be better than they were in their Week 1 matchup against the Saints. The total is posted at 48.5 which means we need seven or more touchdowns (obviously field goals contribute here too, but for simplicity’s sake…). I think the teams should combine for this. The Packers team total is only 30.5, I think they probably score that in three quarters. Play the Packers over 30.5 at -116. I’m also going to play the over on the game total at -114.

I also like one player prop parlay of DeVante Adams to have 100+ yards receiving and the Packers to win. That pays out at +215. I think Adams and Rodgers will be the dynamic duo we are used to and hit this one with ease.     

Written by David Troy

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