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Monday Night Football returns and (glances at the schedule) we have yet another primetime game with the Seattle Seahawks. Nothing against the fine folks from Seattle, but this is the third straight week that they will be a primetime game. What the hell was the scheduling committee thinking? Let’s break it down and see how we can bet this one.
Seattle comes into this game with backup Geno Smith still taking the reigns at quarterback. He struggled to move the ball against Pittsburgh until the second half where he almost led a comeback victory. Ultimately, they fell short against the Steelers in overtime. The biggest thing I saw out of the Seahawks last week was that their run game got going. They need that to keep going to open up the opportunity for Geno Smith to make some plays. Tonight, they face a rested Saints team that was off on their bye week last week.
The Saints are inconsistent to say the least. They demolished Green Bay, then looked like a dumpster fire against Carolina. They beat New England with ease, then lost at home to a bad New York Giants team. Last time they played, they beat the Football Team by 11. What can we expect from them tonight? Expecting things might be the problem. You don’t know which Saints team will show up. One piece of information I found interesting was that the Saints are 18-2 straight up since 2016 the first four weeks after a bye.
I am playing the Saints -4.5 tonight . I already admitted that they are hard to predict what team will show up, but having an extra week – even going into Seattle – is not something that can be underestimated. They should be able to stop the run and try to force Geno Smith to beat them, and realistically, it can happen, I just don’t think it will. Seattle still has two stud receivers that the Saints will struggle to guard in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. If Winston can not turn the ball over and the Saints can impose their will on the ground with Alvin Kamara, this should be an easy winner.
Kamara is +300 to score the first touchdown of the game. That’s very low to me. He’s the obvious and probably correct choice, but if I go for those props, I usually like them a bit juicier. I’m going to play Will Dissly to score a touchdown any time at +950 . Smith didn’t target him as much against the Steelers as he did when he finished out the game against the Rams, but the value is great, and Dissly did find the endzone against the Steelers.