Geoff Clark
Videos by OutKick
The 1st two days of the MLB regular season sucked for yours truly but, after a 2-1 Saturday, I have a chance of ending Opening Day weekend up money.
My three looks for MLB’s Sunday card are the interleague showdown between the Blue Jays-Cardinals, a matchup of two AL playoff teams from last season in Guardians-Mariners, and an NL West contest.
Toronto Blue Jays (1-1) at St. Louis Cardinals (1-1), 2:15 p.m. ET
Cardinals starting LHP Jordan Montgomery was a good pickup for St. Louis at the trade deadline in 2022. As a Cardinal, Montgomery went 6-3 with a 3.11 ERA and 3.08 FIP, both improvements from his marks as a Yankee.
The Blue Jays surprisingly struggled last year vs. left-handed starters. They were 12-21 straight up (SU) with a -38.4% return on investment (ROI) against lefties and averaged just 3.6 runs per nine innings.
The Yankees are 6-3 SU all-time vs. the Blue Jays when Montgomery gets the start. Albeit that’s the Yankees but Montgomery never got run support from NYY’s lineup.
Montgomery had a 3.94 ERA while pitching for the Yankees but was just 22-20 in 97 starts. Against the Blue Jays, the Yankees gave up just 3.6 runs per nine with Montgomery on the bump.
This is a Pros vs. Joe’s game in the betting market. Per VSIN, more money is on the Cardinals while more bets have been placed on the Blue Jays. St. Louis’s moneyline opened at around -105 and is heading north.
MLB BET #1: Cardinals (-120) moneyline at DraftKings, up to -135
Arizona Diamondbacks (1-2) at Los Angeles Dodgers (2-1), 4:10 p.m. ET
This is mostly just a vibe-play. Diamondbacks starting RHP Zach Davies is awful and got smacked by the Dodgers last season. Davies was 0-2 SU vs. LAD in 2022 with a 5.82 ERA (4.09 ERA in 2022) and a 1.52 WHIP (1.30 WHIP in 2022).
In 204 career plate appearances vs. active Dodgers, Davies has a 14.7% K-rate, .488 expected slugging percentage and .355 expected wOBA.
Also, the Dodgers were 27-15 on the run line (RL) last season vs. NL West teams with a +26.5% ROI. LAD was 35-23 RL at home vs. right-handed starters with a +14.7% ROI.
LAD’s lineup definitely lost some pop in the offseason. But, the Dodgers still put up 8 runs on Opening Day and 10 Saturday. Outside of his changeup, Davies’ pitch arsenal is trash and Arizona’s bullpen is fatigued.
MLB BET #2: Dodgers -1.5 (+110) run line at DraftKings, down to +100
Cleveland Guardians (2-1) at Seattle Mariners (1-2), 4:10 p.m. ET
I’m much higher on Cleveland’s starter compared to Seattle’s especially with these new rules. Guardians starting RHP Cal Quantrill and Mariners LHP Marco Gonzales both pitch to contact but Quantrill has better stuff.
Gonzales led the AL in losses last season (15) on a Mariners team that went to the playoffs. Post-All-Star break, Quantrill was 9-0 with a 2.95 ERA (3.75 first-half ERA) and 1.11 WHIP (1.29 first-half WHIP).
Quantrill has a 5-pitch arsenal with mostly off-speed stuff. His sinker, cutter, curveball, and changeup all have negative run values (RV), per Statcast. Only one of Gonzales’ four pitches has a negative RV.
Cleveland’s lineup had the best contact rate in MLB last season and were aggressive on the base paths. Seattle’s lineup has struggled in this opening series, scoring just seven runs thus far.
Three of which were from an 8th-inning 3-run blast vs. Guardians reliever James Karinchak who looked uncomfortable with the new pitch clock.
Karinchak bounced back in Cleveland’s 2-0 win Saturday and have a well-rested bullpen. Overall, the Guardians have a much deeper pitching staff than the Mariners.
Finally, the Guardians appears to be the sharp side here. More than 75% of the action in the consensus betting market is on the Mariners (per Pregame.com) but the line is moving towards Cleveland.
MLB BET #3: Guardians (-105) moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -120
MLB 2023 Futures and Opening Day Bets featuring David Troy
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