Geoff Clark
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I took a 1-1 Friday and have an even record betting the MLB so far in 2023. That said, I won’t be even after Saturday because I have three bets in the MLB.
The three games I’m targeting are the Kansas City Royals visiting the San Francisco Giants, the Seattle Mariners facing the Cleveland Guardians, and LA Angels hosting the Toronto Blue Jays.
Kansas City Royals (2-6) at San Francisco Giants (3-4), 4:05 p.m. ET
The Royals took the series opener 3-1 Friday to snap a 3-game losing skid. The Giants give starting LHP Sean Manaea (0-0, 13.50 ERA) the ball Saturday and Kansas City sends out RHP Brady Singer (1-0, 1.80 ERA).
Manaea got lit up in his 1st outing out of the bullpen in San Francisco’s 12-3 win at the White Sox Monday. He gave up 3 ER on 2 H, 1 HR and 2 BB with 1 K in 2.0 IP of work.
Singer won got the Royals their 1st win of the season, 9-5, Monday vs. the Blue Jays. Singer allowed just 1 ER on 2 H and 3 BB with 3 K over 5 IP.
KC’s lineup is one of the worst in MLB thus far. But, Manaea has sketchy advanced analytics and the Royals have hit left-handed pitching well this season.
Per Statcast, Manaea has been in the bottom-29% or worse in MLB for hard-hit rate in his six big-league seasons. KC has the highest hard-hit rate in the league vs. left-handed pitching and is 5th in ISO, according to FanGraphs.
Finally, both bullpens are mediocre but Kansas City’s at least has better command. The Royals’ relievers are 11th in K-BB% and the Giants’ are 22nd.
MLB Bet #1: Royals (+130) moneyline (ML) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Seattle Mariners (3-5) at Cleveland Guardians (5-3), 6:05 p.m. ET
The Mariners beat the Guardians 5-3 Friday in the series opener. This starting pitching duel is a rematch from last week. Seattle LHP Marco Gonzales (0-0, 7.20 ERA) faces Cleveland RHP Cal Quantrill (0-0, 7.71 ERA) Saturday.
The Guardians beat the Mariners 6-5 in Seattle this past Sunday. Gonzales threw 5 IP for the Mariners in that game with 4 ER on 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 1 K. Quantrill went 4 2/3 IP with 5 R (4 ER) on 8 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 3 K.
Last season, the Guardians were 15-8 straight up (SU) at home vs. left-handed starters with a +23.0% return on investment. The Mariners were 15-23 SU as road dogs vs. righties in 2022 but beat Cleveland RHP Aaron Civale Friday.
Neither starter was any good last Sunday. But, Gonzales is a pitcher I like to fade and did so successfully vs. Cleveland last week. In 2022, Gonzales was in the bottom-20% or worse in K%, whiff rate, and expecting slugging percentage.
Nevertheless, the Guardians are hitting lefty pitching well this season and have a better bullpen. Cleveland will take this game and force a rubber-match Sunday.
MLB Bet #2: Guardians (-135) ML at DraftKings
Toronto Blue Jays (5-3) at Los Angeles Angels (4-3), 9:07 p.m. ET
If there’s a common theme with my three MLB handicaps Saturday, it’s “getting back to what worked”. I faded Toronto with starting RHP Jose Berrios (0-1, 12.71 ERA) in his 1st start of the season vs. Singer and the Royals.
Granted, I bet the Angels Friday and they choked it away. The Blue Jays beat them 4-3 in the series opener thanks to a go-ahead 3-run, 7th-inning blast by SS Bo Bichette.
However, Berrios is a starter I’ll continue to fade on the road and generally. Berrios had the worst ERA among qualified starters (5.23 ERA) in 2022 and tied for the worst home run per nine inning rate.
Furthermore, Berrios has struggled in LA during his career. Berrios has a career 8.61 ERA in LA with a 1.70 WHIP and 17/9 K/BB rate over five starts.
Even though Toronto beat LAA Friday, the Blue Jays didn’t do a lot of damage to the Angels’ lefty starter. LAA LHP Patrick Sandoval allowed just 1 ER over 6 IP.
According to FanGraphs, Toronto’s lineup ranks in the bottom-10 of MLB vs. left-handed pitching in BB/K rate, wRC+, wOBA and ISO so far this season.
MLB Bet #3: Angels (-120) ML at DraftKings
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2-1, including a dog ML winner–I’ll take it every day.