MLB Saturday 'Locks' Are In Late West Coast Games
As a sports betting degen, life sucks without the NFL. There is pretty much nothing else to gamble on besides the MLB. My baseball betting season has been a roller coaster ride and, currently, I'm on a 3-game losing skid.
But, we are only three days into June and there's a whole Summer in front of us to get into the black. My favorite looks on Saturday's MLB card include a side in the Orioles-Giants game and the total in Cubs-Padres.
MLB Saturday Winning Wagers
Baltimore Orioles (36-21) at San Francisco Giants (28-29)
Betting odds for the Orioles-Giants meeting in MLB Saturday, June 3 from DraftKings.
The Orioles have the 3rd-best return on investment (ROI) at +50.4% as a road underdog this season. Baltimore is 11-6 in 2023 as road 'dogs with wins in six of the last seven games in those spots.
Starting RHP Kyle Bradish (2-1, 3.89 ERA) gets the nod Saturday for the Orioles. Since 2022, Baltimore is 11-5 in Bradish's road starts with a +54.5% ROI. The Giants are 8-11 this season as a home favorite.
Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish pitches vs. the Red Sox at Fenway Park in Boston. (Omar Rawlings/Getty Images)
Baltimore's bullpen is 1st in WAR and 3rd in both FIP ("fielding independent pitching") and HR/9 rate, per FanGraphs. San Francisco's bullpen on the other hand ranks 24th in WAR, 19th in FIP, and 22nd in HR/9 rate.
The Orioles play in the toughest division in MLB (AL East) and play well against non-divisional foes. Baltimore is tied for the 3rd-best winning rate outside of their division since 2022, behind the LA Dodgers and Houston Astros.
BET: Orioles (+115) at DraftKings, down to +105
Chicago Cubs (25-31) at San Diego Padres (26-31)
Betting odds for the Cubs-Padres meeting in MLB Saturday, June 3 from DraftKings.
Petco is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in the MLB. In fact, according to Statcast, Petco is 29th in park factor out of 30 MLB ballparks.
This is the major reason that the Padres are 1-8 Over/Under (O/U) at home vs. lefty starters in 2023 with a -2.3 O/U margin. The Padres are averaging just 1.8 runs per game in these contests.
San Diego's ace, RHP Yu Darvish (3-4, 4.61 ERA) takes the mound Saturday. Since 2022, the Padres are 5-13 O/U at home in Darvish starts and 1-3 O/U this year.
Chicago's starter Saturday, LHP Drew Smyly, has better pitching peripherals than Darvish in 2023. Per Statcast, Smyly grades in the 93rd percentile in exit velocity and 84th percentile in expected ERA over expected wOBA.
Padres' slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. reacts after striking out vs. the Nationals at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. (Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Plus, San Diego's lineup is one of the most disappointing in baseball. The Padres are loaded with sluggers but rank just 22nd in wRC+, 23rd in wOBA, and 17th in WAR, according to FanGraphs.
Furthermore, Chicago's lineup has been awful over the past two weeks as well. The Cubs rank 28th in wRC+ and 29th in wOBA, K%, and WAR during this stretch.
Finally, per Pregame.com, the public is nearly split on the Cubs-Padres total Saturday. But, nearly 90% of the money is on the Under, which includes offshore shops. A few legal U.S. sportsbooks lowered this total to 7.5.