MLB Mid-Season NL Division Bets

I won't sugar coat this, the start to this MLB season hasn't been as solid as the past two years, and my favorite futures are not in a great spot. That doesn't mean things can't change, but without individual games to handicap, I've been looking at division bets in the National League that make some sense to take a flyer on.

Let's start with the NL Central. This was the one that I was overly confident in before the season started. I thought the Cardinals would coast to the division title. I have to give Geoff Clark a bit of a hat tip here as he said he didn't think they had the pitching to do it and that the Brewers should be the favorite. As of right now, it appears he would be correct. The Cardinals go into the "second-half" of the season 11.5 games behind the current division-leading Reds. Conversely, the Brewers are just a game back to start. 11.5 isn't quite insurmountable, but it is highly unlikely given that the Cardinals haven't shown anything remotely positive in roughly 85 games thus far. So, my Cardinals bet is probably toast. Who is the likely winner now? According to the books it is the Brewers, and I can't say I necessarily disagree with them.

The Brewers currently sit at -110 to win the division and they certainly have the most logical claim to the division. Their pitchers are experienced, and their hitters have been in playoff races before, so it makes a lot of sense that they would be the favorite. Who is chasing them down? The Reds. Cincinnati is the division leader at the break and I have to guess most of you would not have predicted that. I certainly didn't. However, their young core all seems to be clicking and they legitimately have three guys that could be considered for Rookie of the Year. Will the team be willing to add at the trade deadline? Think about it, they have basically been unloading anyone of value for two years in hopes of this rebuild. Maybe they think they are where they need to be and are willing to trade away some assets. At +130 they frankly aren't worth it to me. I'd rather be wrong for not supporting them than wrong and wasting my money. The Cubs are the most intriguing to me at +850. They are teetering between being buyers and being sellers at the deadline. They are seven games back and a good week vaults them back into contention. I do think there is decent value here, but I'm concerned they are going to trade away their players. That all boils down to the Brewers being the safest bet here.

MESA, ARIZONA - MARCH 01: Ian Happ #8 (L) and Dansby Swanson #7 of the Chicago Cubs wait to take the field for the spring training game against the Seattle Mariners at Sloan Park on March 01, 2023 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

There really is only one other division to talk about in the National League in terms of potential betting options. The books still seem to think the Dodgers will take the NL West, and it is hard to disagree here too. Just looking at their team and roster, they are sitting tied for first place and have a 51-38 record for the year. If anything, you probably could say they underperformed. I wouldn't necessarily say it, but they certainly have the potential to improve over the next few months and if there is a big flaw on the team, management will without a doubt address it. So who could catch them? The Diamondbacks had a great first half of the season. They are tied with the Dodgers and have been in first place most of the year. Arizona has the pitching to remain relevant, but I do wonder if the batting will eventually fall off the cliff. The Giants are 2.5 games back, but I wouldn't bet on them. If you've watched them, they've been on a roller coaster ride this season. San Francisco could make the playoffs (I'd be a bit surprised) but I think it will be through the Wild Card, not the division. I think the Diamondbacks are worth a bet here at +400.

To just touch on the NL East... the Braves have it locked up and the only way they won't win it is due to significant injuries. I could see the Phillies take it if that were to happen so the smallest of sprinkles on them could be in order.

My favorite divisional bet is the Diamondbacks at +400, but I do think that the Brewers should take the NL Central at -110. If you believe the Cubs will be buyers then that +850 won't last long.

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