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Even though I’m not a noob to betting on MLB, I do noob-y things like parlay heavy favorites. Most professional MLB handicappers would never publicly give out one of these moron bets.
But, I cannot help myself. I HATE betting run lines and there’s such a gap between the top-tier teams and basement dwellers in MLB. Betting these parlays is something I’ve had success with in the past and I’m going to bet them throughout 2022.
Minnesota Twins (8-4) at New York Yankees (8-4), 7:05 p.m. ET
The Twins (+125 moneyline) won back-to-back home series against the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros after dropping two of three at the Miami Marlins.
The Yankees (-145 ML) have won all four series so far this season and four of their last five games vs. the Cleveland Guardians and Baltimore Orioles, all on the road.
NYY smacked around Minnesota’s Tuesday starter, RHP Joe Ryan (2-0, 3.75 ERA), in a 7-1 home win in Sept. 2022. Albeit all the damage was done by Yankees IF Isiah Kiner-Falefa who hit a grand slam.
This is Yankees rookie RHP Jhony Brito (2-0, 0.90 ERA) 3rd MLB start and he’s looked good in the 1st two. His fastball ranks in the 82nd-percentile of velocity and the changeup has a hard-hit rate of just 21.4%, per Statcast.
Furthermore, NYY’s lineup is more productive than Minnesota’s vs. right-handed pitching and the Yankees have the best bullpen in MLB.
The Yankees have a better wRC+ (121-86), wOBA (.346-.294), ISO (.206-.112), BB/K rate (0.39-0.33), and hard-hit rate (34.2-30.0%). NYY’s bullpen leads MLB in FIP (“fielding independent pitching”) and is tied for the highest WAR.
My final two angles for my pro-Yankees handicap is the line movement and NYY’s ownership of Minnesota. The Yankees opened as -135 ML favorites and 11-2 overall at home vs. the Twins since 2019 (3-1 in 2022).
Pittsburgh Pirates (7-5) at St. Louis Cardinals (5-7), 7:45 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh (+215 ML) has won six of the last 10 games yet lost a home set to the Houston Astros 2-1 earlier this week. The Pirates give journeyman RHP Vince Velasquez (0-2, 9.82 ERA) the nod.
St. Louis (-255 ML) has only won four of the past 10 games but beat the Rockies 2-1 in a 3-game set in Colorado Monday-Wednesday. LHP Jordan Montgomery (2-0, 2.25 ERA) starts for the Cardinals Thursday.
In 2022, the Cardinals beat the Pirates 13-6 in their season series by two runs per game. Montgomery earned one of those 13 victories in October 2022 and St. Louis’s lineup hits Velasquez well.
Current Cardinals hitters have a .307/.386/.581 slash line in 70 plate appearances vs. Velasquez with 5 HR. Velasquez has given up 7 HRs in 18 2/3 career IP at Busch Stadium in St. Louis.
Pittsburgh’s lineup on the other hand should struggle with Montgomery. Pirates’ hitters rank in the bottom-10 vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and hard-hit rate as a unit, per FanGraphs.
Also, Pittsburgh’s lineup is easier to navigate since losing young, star slugger SS O’Neill Cruz to an ankle injury when he collided with Chicago White Sox catcher Seby Zavala at home plate Sunday.
I’m parlaying the Cardinals’ full-game ML instead of the First-5 Inning ML because they were just 9-10 on the Run Line vs. the Pirates in 2022 and St. Louis’s bullpen is tied atop MLB in WAR and FIP and is 3rd in K-BB%.
MLB ‘Idiot’ Parlay: Yankees & Cardinals MLs (+135) at DraftKings
- Just in case you got this far and still don’t know. A “parlay” is when you pair two spreads together and they both have to win for the bet to cash.
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