Videos by OutKick
Even though I went 1-1 on my Monday MLB bets, I scratched out a profit with some clever risk management. I’ve ditched those stupid parlays for Tuesday and opted for three outright wagers instead.
Truth be told, I write these intros after the handicaps and I’m just realizing that I bet three road teams Tuesday. That doesn’t make me feel great but I stand by my analysis for each. Feel free to fade or follow at your own peril.
Texas Rangers (10-6) at Kansas City Royals (4-13), 7:40 p.m. ET
The Rangers took two of a 3-game set with the Royals last week and Texas shutout Kansas City 4-0 in the series opener Monday. Texas gives RHP Nathan Eovaldi (1-2, 6.32 ERA) the start Tuesday and KC sends out RHP Brad Keller (2-1, 2.12 ERA).
Eovaldi actually lost to Keller and the Royals 10-1 Wednesday. Eovaldi allowed 6 ER on 10 H and 1 with a 7/0 K/BB rate over 5 IP. Keller threw 6 2/3 IP with 1 solo home run, 3 H and a 7/1 K/BB rate.
While Keller’s surface numbers look better, when you look under the hood, Eovaldi is actually pitching better. Eovaldi’s FIP (“fielding independent pitching”) is 2.30 and his BABIP is .444.
Since FIP is more predicative than ERA, especially early in the year, and BABIP is a luck-based stat, I’m confident Eovaldi’s basic pitching numbers will improve. He has a better K%, BB% and chase, whiff and barrel rates than Keller, per Statcast.
Even if the starting pitching duel is a toss-up, Texas has by far the better bullpen and lineup. Kansas City’s lineup is last in both wRC+ and wOBA, 29th in ISO and 26th in BB/K rate, per FanGraphs.
Also, Texas’s bullpen is 1st in both WAR and HR/9 rate, 2nd in FIP and 10th in hard-hit rate. KC’s bullpen is 25th in WAR, 26th in HR/9 rate, 24th in FIP, and 29th in hard-hit rate.
MLB Bet #1: Rangers (-125) moneyline (ML) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Chicago Cubs (9-6) at Oakland Athletics (4-13), 9:40 p.m. ET
The Cubs crushed the A’s 10-1 in their series opener Monday. Chicago turns to crafty RHP Marcus Stroman (2-1, 1.00 ERA) for the 2nd game of the series and Oakland sends LHP Ken Waldichuk (0-2, 10.20 ERA).
Most casual MLB fans know the A’s are terrible but they may be behind on the Cubs who were sub-.500 in 2022. Chicago invested in its product this offseason and through the 1st two weeks of the year the Cubs look good.
I usually hate playing run lines in the MLB but I’m okay laying -1.5 with the Cubs Tuesday because they have a three-phase edge in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
Chicago’s lineup ranks 5th in wRC+ (136) and 4th in wOBA (.382) vs. left-handed pitching. Oakland’s lineup is 21st in wRC+ (92), 26th in wOBA (.296), and 28th in hard-hit rate against righties.
Finally, the Cubs’ relievers are 1st in FIP (the A’s are last), 3rd in WAR (the A’s are last), 9th in HR/9 rate (the A’s are 23rd), and 1st in K-BB% (the A’s are last).
MLB Bet #2: Cubs -1.5 run line (-110) at DraftKings
New York Mets (11-6) at Los Angeles Dodgers (8-9), 10:10 p.m. ET
If I’m a Mets fan, I’m excited about their record considering Justin Verlander is on the IL and Max Scherzer has been mediocre through his 1st three starts.
Conversely, Dodgers fans should be worried about their squad. They are just 3-7 over their last 10 games. LAD doesn’t have the Avengers lineup as previous years and are without a couple of key starters.
NYM beat LAD 8-6 in the series opener Monday. Mets starting RHP Tylor Megill (3-0, 2.25 ERA) gets the nod and the Dodgers give all-time great Clayton Kershaw (2-1, 3.50 ERA) the ball Tuesday.
My main handicapping angle for Mets-Dodgers is the sketchy line movement or lack thereof. Per VSIN, more than 70% of the action at DraftKings is on LAD. The Dodgers opened as -170 favorites and are down to -165.
I’m more willing to follow line movement when betting regular-season MLB action because of all the baseball data available. There are a lot sharp MLB bettors than me with better models moving these odds.
Since it feels like the sportsbooks are welcoming more-Dodgers money, let’s get on the same side as The House and …
MLB Bet #3: Mets (+140) ML at DraftKings, down to +130
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
PointsBet Sportsbook users can make their first bets risk-free up to $2,000. If the bet loses, PointsBet will refund you in site credit. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.
First-time DraftKings users can get up to a $1,000 deposit bonus and receive a 20% first deposit match up to $1,000 when they sign up. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.