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MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, September 29, 2021

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A nice 2-1 day for us yesterday with the Red Sox losing to the Orioles after allowing four runs. Let’s try for a sweep today.

Cubs vs. Pirates

Yesterday we hit the over in this game. Today, we are taking a side – the Cubs. This is mostly about the starting pitching for me. I think the Cubs will likely still win this series even after the loss of the opener. Kyle Hendricks is taking the mound for the Cubs and there was a not-so-long-ago time where you’d love him at home. Now, it is the opposite, I prefer taking him in road starts as opposed to at Wrigley. Don’t get me wrong, he hasn’t been a world-beater on the road, but he does have an earned run lower ERA on the road than at home. He hasn’t been great against Pittsburgh this season, but most of the damage has been done at Wrigley as opposed to PNC. Roansy Contreras is making his Major League debut for the Pirates. In the minors, Contreras has been great in the minors with a solid K/9 inning and low 2’s ERA. Cubs hitters may have the edge in this matchup though as some could have seen him in the minors recently. I’ll take the established pitcher over the rookie. Play the Cubs at -116 .

Diamondbacks vs. Giants

The Giants still have some work to do to claim the division, and they have a bit of an easier path than the Dodgers. The Dodgers are stuck playing the talented, but underperforming Padres, while the Giants get to take on the bottom-dwelling Diamondbacks. I’d argue that Merrill Kelly had been one of the best pitchers for the Diamondbacks. Although, lately, he’s been one of the worst with three consecutive bad starts. Before that rough stretch, the Kelly held the Giants scoreless for eight innings before the Diamondbacks bullpen blew the game. He’s faced the Giants four times this season and the lowest total runs scored was eight runs. Alex Wood has been a usable starter for the Giants most of the season. He hasn’t performed well against the Diamondbacks though, allowing 13 earned runs over 21 innings. All but one of his starts have been eight or more total runs allowed. I’m not sure why the total is just eight for this one, but I’ll happily play the over 8 runs at -110 .

Padres vs. Dodgers

We just mentioned the relationship and importance of these games in the last breakdown. The Dodgers went out and obtained Max Scherzer for this exact purpose. He is starting against the Padres tonight, something he has done four times this season. Two of them came with the Nationals, and two came with the Dodgers. With the Dodgers, Scherzer has gone 15.2 innings and allowed ZERO earned runs and just three hits. Ryan Weathers goes for the Padres, and he has been spectacular against the Dodgers this season. He has faced them in three games, spanning 10.2 innings and allowed just three hits, one earned run, and struck out 10 batters. The Dodgers will win this game tonight, but there is no reason to expect high scoring. Play the under 8 runs at -110 .

Written by David Troy

David is a marketing professional and former adjunct professor from Chicago, IL, husband, and father. He is an avid sports lover that has turned his focus to sports betting after originally developing a love for risk, statistics, and gambling from the Texas Hold'em Poker boom. He loves interacting with people and talking about pop culture, and obviously sports. When he isn't watching sports, he's probably coaching his kids, drinking tequila, or watching movies and tv. David may not always be right, but he will give you reasons why he is doing what he does.

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