We ended up yesterday 2-0-1 with a push on our Angels/Rangers bet. We did get a little lucky with the Rockies winning in extra innings, but I’ll take it. Last three days? 6-1-1. We are going to stay off of the early Pittsburgh and Colorado game, but we happily walked away from that with 2.06 units.
Brewers at Padres
I mentioned yesterday that the Padres are in a bit of a slump. They were part of our victory celebration yesterday, only putting up one run against Corbin Burnes. Today, they should have a better chance of scoring as they face Aaron Ashby. Ashby has been used as both a reliever and as a starter on the year. As a starter, he walks more people, and he strikes out fewer batters. He has had fewer at-bats against him as a starter this season so my guess is that he is still getting comfortable as a starter. Yu Darvish pitches for the Padres and he has been superb as a home pitcher. Historically Darvish has been solid against Brewers hitters, so I’ll take Darvish and the Padres at -142.
Cubs at Reds
I’m not sure what exactly has happened to Kyle Hendricks. Maybe he’s lost something, maybe he feels like he can’t make any mistakes, or maybe hitters have figured him out. It really doesn’t matter. What matters is what he does today. The Reds have been good against him in the past too, hitting .277 against him. Luis Castillo has gotten progressively better as the season has gone on even though he only has three starts so far. He had a really nice start against the Blue Jays last time out, going six innings, and allowing just two earned runs. I think the books are overvaluing the offense in this game a bit. I’ll take the under 8.5 runs at -104.
Phillies at Braves
Through 43 games, the Phillies and Braves are both sitting with identical 20-23 records on the season. The Braves are sending one of their better pitchers to the mound in Charlie Morton to try and keep climbing towards .500. Having faced the Phillies a lot, both pitcher and hitter should be familiar with each other. Morton has been significantly better at his home park this season, posting almost a 4-run lower ERA. The Braves have also won his last three starts. To combat Morton, Ranger Suarez is taking the ball. He’s been good in his May outings – four games, 21 innings, 9 earned runs. Again, an area of concern – 27 baserunners in 21 innings can spell trouble. Braves hitters have been okay against him, but not great. Runs might be hard to come by in this one. Play under 9 runs at -108.